The Astros are 14-21 and look the part. They're at Fenway on Sunday afternoon as +155 underdogs at Pinnacle, which tells you everything about how the market sees a Cody Bolton (5.79 ERA) start against Ranger Suarez and his 3.09. Boston isn't exactly humming either at 13-20, but the Sox are home, they have the better arm, and they're catching a Houston roster missing roughly half its Opening Day pitching staff.
The injury page is where this game gets ugly for Joe Espada. Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter are all on the IL — that's a starting rotation by itself. Josh Hader is out of the bullpen. Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers, Joey Loperfido and Taylor Trammell are all on the shelf. Yordan Alvarez (12 HR, 27 RBI) is doing the heavy lifting basically alone.
- Day-To-DayLance McCullers Jr. SP — McCullers was removed from his start Wednesday against the Dodgers in the top of the third inning after he appeared to be contending with a blister on his pitching hand, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. He was charged with six earned runs on four hits and three walks over 2.2 innings prior to his departure.
- Day-To-DayWalker Janek C — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.
- Day-To-DayLucas Spence OF — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Spence on its 7-day injured list April 22 due to an unspecified injury.
- 10-Day-ILJeremy Pena SS — Manager Joe Espada said Friday that Pena (hamstring) will "hopefully" run the bases this weekend, which would be the final step in his rehab program before starting a rehab assignment, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
- 10-Day-ILJoey Loperfido LF — The Astros announced Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) has started light running and light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Correa SS — The Astros placed Correa (ankle) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
- 10-Day-ILJake Meyers CF — The Astros announced Monday that Meyers (oblique) has started swinging a bat and reincorporating other baseball activities, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILTaylor Trammell CF — The Astros announced Monday that Trammell (groin) has begun a running progression in addition to taking part in light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
- Day-To-DayRanger Suarez SP — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said Friday that Suarez's (hamstring) next start will come next week "sometime in the Philly series," Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris RP — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony LF — The Red Sox placed Anthony (wrist) on the 10-day injured list Thursday, retroactive to Tuesday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
- 15-Day-ILJustin Slaten RP — Slaten (oblique) allowed one hit and struck out two over a scoreless inning for Double-A Portland on Sunday.
- 15-Day-ILDanny Coulombe RP — The Red Sox placed Coulombe on the 15-day injured list Monday with cervical spasms.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet SP — Crochet (shoulder) was able to play catch Sunday for the first time since landing on the injured list Wednesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 15-Day-ILKutter Crawford SP — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 60-Day-ILTriston Casas 1B — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
Boston, for its part, is playing under interim manager Chad Tracy after the club fired Alex Cora on April 25 following a 10-17 start. The Sox have at least started showing some life since the change, and Suarez has been the steadying presence the rotation needed — sub-1.00 WHIP, 12th in the majors. Getting him at home in a day game against a banged-up Houston lineup is about as friendly a spot as Tracy's going to draw this week.
Houston has actually won three of its last five, so the vibes aren't quite as bleak as the record. But splitting series with Cleveland and stealing wins doesn't paper over the run differential or the rotation depth chart. Bolton's a back-end arm being asked to soak innings, and Fenway is not the park you want to do that in.
The total sits at 9 with the under juiced to -121, which lines up with Suarez's profile and the Astros' offensive injury list more than any read on Bolton. Sharp money on the spread is firmly on Boston (-1.5) at 93% of Pinnacle handle. If you're betting this one, the market is screaming Sox — just know there's no edge baked in (EV is negative across the board).