The pitching matchup is the only reason this game looks competitive on paper. Spencer Arrighetti is 4-0 with a 1.96 ERA and is coming off a 7-inning, 1-run start at Yankee Stadium where the only damage was an Aaron Judge solo shot. Chase Burns counters at 3-1, 2.20, and just spun 6 scoreless against the Giants with 4 punchouts after a clunker against the Angels. Two of the better young arms in the league, same afternoon.
Houston is 16-23 and shouldn't be the favorite anywhere, yet the market has the Reds laying -155 at home. That's almost entirely a Burns-vs-an-Astros-lineup-held-together-with-tape read. The injury list for Houston is genuinely unreal — Correa, Pena, Yainer Diaz, Meyers, Loperfido, Hunter Brown, Hader, Javier, Blanco, Walter — and they've still managed to give Arrighetti enough run support to go 4-0.
- Day-To-DayLance McCullers Jr. (SP) — McCullers was removed from his start Wednesday against the Dodgers in the top of the third inning after he appeared to be contending with a blister on his pitching hand, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. He was charged with six earned runs on four hits and three walks over 2.2 innings prior to his departure.05/08
- Day-To-DayWalker Janek (C) — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.05/08
- Day-To-DayLucas Spence (OF) — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Spence on its 7-day injured list April 22 due to an unspecified injury.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJeremy Pena (SS) — Manager Joe Espada said Friday that Pena (hamstring) will "hopefully" run the bases this weekend, which would be the final step in his rehab program before starting a rehab assignment, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJoey Loperfido (LF) — The Astros announced Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) has started light running and light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Correa (SS) — The Astros placed Correa (ankle) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJake Meyers (CF) — The Astros announced Monday that Meyers (oblique) has started swinging a bat and reincorporating other baseball activities, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILTaylor Trammell (CF) — The Astros announced Monday that Trammell (groin) has begun a running progression in addition to taking part in light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILYainer Diaz (C) — The Astros placed Diaz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILHunter Brown (SP) — Brown (shoulder) threw a successful bullpen session Friday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILTatsuya Imai (SP) — Astros general manager Dana Brown said Tuesday that Imai (arm) will rejoin the rotation next week versus the Mariners, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILNate Pearson (RP) — Pearson (elbow) permitted one run on one hit and four walks over two innings in his first rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land on Thursday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILHayden Wesneski (SP) — The Astros announced Monday that Wesneski (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRonel Blanco (SP) — The Astros announced Monday that Blanco (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Walter (SP) — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJosh Hader (RP) — Hader (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCristian Javier (SP) — The Astros announced Monday that Javier (shoulder) will begin a throwing progression this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayRhett Lowder (SP) — Lowder was given an injection in the AC joint of his right shoulder after an MRI on Friday came back negative, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns (C) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont (RP) — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez (3B) — Suarez (oblique) took 50 swings Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson (RP) — Ferguson (oblique) allowed one run on one hit and struck out two over one inning for Double-A Chattanooga on Friday.05/08
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan (RP) — Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.05/08
- OutCarson Spiers (SP) — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Greene (elbow) is playing catch from 110 feet and is about three weeks away from progressing to bullpen sessions, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
The Reds aren't exactly whole either. Eugenio Suarez is still working back from the oblique (took 50 swings Thursday, per Charlie Goldsmith), Rhett Lowder got a cortisone shot in the AC joint after a clean MRI, and Emilio Pagan is looking at 4-to-8 weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. The bullpen has been the soft spot during the skid and losing Pagan's late-inning leverage doesn't help.
The pitching matchup says low-scoring, the total sits at 8.5, and somebody's snapping a streak — either Houston extends what they did Friday or Cincinnati finally exhales. Burns at home with the Reds desperate is the bet the public is making. Whether the Astros' patchwork lineup cooperates is the part nobody actually knows.