Wednesday's matinee at Target Field is the rubber game of a three-gamer the Astros and Twins have split, with Minnesota taking the opener 6-3 before Houston punched back with a 2-1 win on Tuesday. Now it's Mike Burrows (2-5, 5.72) trying to keep that going against Joe Ryan (2-3, 3.20), and the matchup on paper is not exactly even.
Ryan is the guy you want on the mound in a getaway day. He's punched out 52 against 14 walks in 50.2 innings and the Astros lineup he's seeing has scuffled to a .654 OPS as a team since the start of May. Burrows, meanwhile, is coming off his worst outing of the year — 7 runs on 8 hits in 5.2 innings — and even the rosier expected-stats arguments in his favor only do so much when the actual line keeps looking like that.
The bigger problem for Houston is the IL board. Jose Altuve hit the 10-day with an oblique on Monday, Carlos Correa just had ankle surgery, Lance McCullers Jr. got scratched from Tuesday's start with shoulder inflammation, and Yainer Diaz, Josh Hader, Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco are all watching from the trainer's room. There's a serviceable rotation and most of a bullpen on that list.
- Day-To-DayWalker Janek C — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.
- 10-Day-ILJose Altuve 2B — The Astros placed Altuve on the 10-day injured list Monday with a left oblique strain.
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Correa SS — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJoey Loperfido LF — The Astros announced Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) has started light running and light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
- 10-Day-ILTaylor Trammell CF — The Astros announced Monday that Trammell (groin) has begun a running progression in addition to taking part in light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
- 10-Day-ILYainer Diaz C — The Astros placed Diaz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr. SP — McCullers was scratched from his scheduled start against the Twins on Tuesday due to shoulder inflammation, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
- 15-Day-ILBennett Sousa RP — The Astros placed Sousa on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, retroactive to Wednesday, Julia Morales of Space City Home Network reports.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins CF — Twins manager Jeremy Zoll said Saturday that Jenkins (shoulder) is "reporting improvements daily" and could begin light baseball activity in about a week, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayCory Lewis SP — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather RP — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino SP — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILRyan Jeffers C — Jeffers needs surgery to remove a fractured left hamate bone and is expected to be sidelined 6-to-8 weeks, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Sands RP — Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll said that Sands (forearm) played catch on consecutive days last week and is expected to spend about a month on the injured list, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- 15-Day-ILMick Abel SP — Abel (elbow/triceps) resumed playing light catch Wednesday, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- 15-Day-ILCody Laweryson RP — Laweryson (forearm) worked around a walk to deliver a scoreless inning in his rehab appearance Saturday with Triple-A St. Paul.
Minnesota isn't fully healthy either — Pablo Lopez is on the 60-day, the bullpen has lost Cole Sands, and they just learned Ryan Jeffers needs hamate surgery and will be out 6-to-8 weeks. But losing your backup-catcher depth chart is a different tier of pain than what's happening in Houston right now.
The market reflects all of it. Minnesota is laying -153 at Pinnacle with a fair win probability of 59%, and the runline has drifted to the half-run at DK while staying at a flat 1 on the sharp side. Total sits at 8 with the over slightly juiced. Nothing screams +EV here, but you can see why the public money is piling on the Twins side at a 70/77 handle split.
If you're an Astros fan, this is a survive-and-advance spot — get out of Minnesota at .500 for the trip and go home to regroup. If you're a Twins fan, this is the kind of game a team that wants to be taken seriously closes out. Ryan vs. a banged-up Houston order at noon central is about as friendly as the schedule gets.