The 20-18 Athletics are not supposed to be in first place. They are. Aaron Civale, in the middle of a quiet career-rebuild season, is a big reason why — he goes Saturday afternoon at Camden Yards against a Baltimore team that just keeps stacking starting pitchers on the IL.
Civale comes in off six innings of one-run ball against Cleveland on May 3, the kind of pitch-to-contact, traffic-but-no-damage start he keeps stringing together. The 2.95 ERA is real, even if the underlying metrics whisper that regression is on the way. For a team that lost Gunnar Hoglund to the 60-day IL, that profile is worth its weight.
Shane Baz is the more interesting arm in a vacuum and the less reliable one this season. He just signed a 5-year, $68M extension before Opening Day — the richest contract the Orioles have ever handed a pitcher — and the early returns have been bumpy. His last start was the best of the year (5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K vs. Houston), so the stuff is starting to click. The 4.99 ERA reflects the six starts before that.
- 10-Day-ILDenzel Clarke CF — Clarke (foot) has begun a running and hitting progression, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILMax Muncy 3B — Muncy (hand) has yet to resume baseball activities, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILGunnar Hoglund SP — Hoglund (knee/back) was given a cortisone injection in his left hip May 1, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayBlaze Alexander 3B — Alexander is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Marlins.
- Day-To-DayRichard Guasch SP — no
- Day-To-DayWill Robertson LF — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- Day-To-DayKeagan Gillies P — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
- Day-To-DayLuis Vazquez SS — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJackson Holliday 2B — The Orioles sent Holliday (hand) to Double-A Chesapeake on Thursday to resume a rehab assignment.
- 10-Day-ILHeston Kjerstad LF — The Orioles announced Monday that Kjerstad (hamstring) will be re-evaluated soon to determine his readiness for a rehab assignment, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- 15-Day-ILCade Povich SP — The Orioles placed Povich on the 15-day injured list Friday with left shoulder inflammation.
The Orioles' injury list reads like a depth chart: Eflin (Tommy John), Kremer, Rogers, Povich, Bautista, Kjerstad, Holliday, Vazquez. That is a real team's worth of contributors not playing. Craig Albernaz is essentially running a AAAA roster behind Baz, which makes a 17-22 record feel less like a slump and more like the floor.
The market has Baltimore as a -123 home favorite at a total of 9.5, which leans on the home park and the bullpen edge more than anything Baz has earned. DraftKings money is split — handle is tilting Orioles ML and Over, tickets are leaning A's. EV is negative across the board, so this is a watch-the-game spot, not a hammer-it spot. Civale vs. a banged-up Baltimore lineup is the cleanest read on the card.