Andrew Painter gets the ball for Philly and the rookie is in the middle of a rough patch. He's surrendered at least 3 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts, including a homecoming dud in Miami last Saturday where he couldn't get out of the 5th inning, walked 3, and gave up 7 hits. The 5.28 ERA tells the story. The good news for Phillies fans is that the lineup has been doing the heavy lifting under Mattingly, so Painter doesn't necessarily need to be perfect — he just can't bury them early.
On the other side, J.T. Ginn opens for the A's. He punched his way back into the rotation after splitting time as a reliever last year and has been steadier than his 0-1 record suggests. The 4.30 ERA over 29.1 innings is workable, and his first start of the season was a 4-inning, 1-hit gem against the Mets. Whether he can navigate a Phillies lineup that has actually started clicking is the question.
The market sees it as a Phillies game. Pinnacle has Philly at -125 with a fair win probability of 54.4%, while DraftKings is juicing it to -168 — that's why the EV on the home moneyline is the worst number on the board at -5.91%. Public money is hammering the home side too: 84% of bets and 78% of handle on the ML. The total is the more interesting split, with DK shading down to 8.0 while Pinnacle sits at 9.5, a full run and a half apart.
Injury-wise, the A's are still without Max Muncy (hand), who hasn't even resumed baseball activities yet, plus Denzel Clarke working back from a foot issue. Philly's biggest absence remains Johan Rojas, who's still serving the 80-game PED suspension that wiped out his spring. The bullpen attrition for the Phillies is also real — multiple arms on the IL — which makes Painter going deep more important than the box score will let on.
- PaternityShea Langeliers (C) — Langeliers was placed on the paternity list Monday.05/05
- 10-Day-ILMax Muncy (3B) — Muncy (hand) has yet to resume baseball activities, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.05/05
- 10-Day-ILDenzel Clarke (CF) — Clarke (foot) has begun a running and hitting progression, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.05/05
- 60-Day-ILGunnar Hoglund (SP) — Hoglund (knee/back) was given a cortisone injection in his left hip May 1, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.05/05
- Day-To-DayChristian McGowan (RP) — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.05/01
- Day-To-DayRene Pinto (C) — The Phillies signed Pinto to a minor-league contract Jan. 6.05/01
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert (RP) — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.03/29
- Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony (1B) — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.03/29
- Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold (3B) — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.03/29
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary (C) — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.03/01
- 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus (RP) — Backhus allowed one run on two hits across one inning of work as an opener Wednesday against the Cubs. He struck out one.04/30
- 15-Day-ILZach Pop (RP) — Pop is slated to serve as the Phillies' opening pitcher in Sunday's game against the Diamondbacks, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.04/15
- suspensionJohan Rojas (CF) — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.03/16
- 60-Day-ILMax Lazar (RP) — Lazar (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Jersey Shore on Thursday.04/30
Bottom line: A first-place AL West team in name only is limping into a Phillies club that has rediscovered its identity under a new manager. If Painter gives Mattingly anything close to 5 solid innings, this one feels like it goes Philly's way. If he spirals early like he has in 3 of his last 4, Ginn and the A's bullpen could steal the finale.