The Blue Jays open this one as a road favorite at -1.5, with Adam Macko (1-0, 0.00) drawing his first career MLB start opposite Trevor Rogers (2-6, 6.96). Rogers is coming off a 4.2-inning, 4-ER loss to Detroit on May 24. Macko has been a 6-appearance unicorn out of the pen — small sample, but the line is the line.
Macko's the story. The Canadian-developed lefty became the first Slovakia-born pitcher in MLB history when he debuted on May 18, and he hasn't allowed a run in 4.1 innings of relief work to this point. Now he gets stretched out against a real lineup in a real ballpark. Toronto's rotation has been gutted — Scherzer is just starting a rehab assignment at Triple-A Buffalo, Bieber is rehabbing in the FCL, and Berrios is done after Tommy John — so Macko isn't getting the ball here as a luxury. He's getting it because there's nobody else.
- Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart C — no
- Day-To-DayChay Yeager RP — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- Day-To-DayCJ Stubbs C — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
- Day-To-DayJaven Coleman P — no
- 10-Day-ILLenyn Sosa 2B — Sosa went 2-for-5 with a solo home run, an additional run and an additional RBI on Saturday against the Twins in an 11-4 victory.
- 10-Day-ILAddison Barger RF — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Wednesday that Barger (elbow) will resume throwing "probably [Thursday]," Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILDylan Cease SP — Cease (hamstring) is expected to throw a bullpen session this weekend, Ian Quillen of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILJoe Mantiply RP — Mantiply will undergo arthroscopic surgery to repair some damage in his left knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- Day-To-DayLevi Wells P — Wells underwent successful core-muscle surgery Thursday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
- Day-To-DayYennier Cano RP — Cano was removed from Wednesday's game against the Rays due to right hamstring discomfort, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
- Day-To-DayRichard Guasch SP — no
- Day-To-DayWill Robertson LF — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- Day-To-DayLuis Vazquez SS — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILDylan Beavers RF — Beavers (oblique) hit in the batting cage Wednesday, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- 15-Day-ILCade Povich SP — Povich (elbow) met with Dr. Keith Meister on Tuesday and is without an official timetable for his return after receiving a cortisone injection, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- 15-Day-ILRyan Helsley RP — Helsley (elbow) played catch Friday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Rogers, meanwhile, is in the kind of slump that makes managers stare at the floor in press conferences. The Orioles are 0-5 in his last 5 starts, and he's coughed up 25 earned runs across 19 innings in that stretch. His velocity is fine, his stuff+ grades are fine, and yet hitters are slashing .500/.579/.750 against him with two outs since mid-April. This is the most baffling kind of bad — nothing visibly broken, everything coming apart.
Baltimore did just take 3 of 4 from Tampa Bay before dropping last night's series opener 2-1 to Toronto, so the lineup is in better shape than the rotation suggests. The trouble is the home side keeps catching the wrong end of the pitching matchup. With Kremer and Povich on the IL, Eflin gone for the year after Tommy John, and Helsley still playing catch, the O's are running out of arms to plug the holes.
DraftKings ticket counts have 73% of spread bets on Baltimore +1.5 and 61% on the over 8.5, which tracks for a public reading Macko's name and assuming a rookie debut gets ambushed. Pinnacle disagrees — the home moneyline sits at -111 with a 51.5% fair probability, basically a coin flip. If Macko's bullpen stuff plays in a starting role for even 4 innings, Toronto's bullpen has been the steadier group, and that's where this one tips.
Bottom line: a curiosity start for the Jays against a Rogers outing that nobody in Birdland wants to watch. If you're sitting down at 6:05 PM ET, the read is Macko's pitch count — once he hits 70, it's a bullpen game, and that's a fight the Orioles aren't winning right now.