Barstool Bush
Predictions

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

By Bush StaffUpdated 84d ago·2 min read
Toronto Blue JaysTOR(29-30)
Baltimore OriolesBAL(27-32)
5—9
FINAL
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TOR
000000140580
BAL
01500300—9101

Spencer Miles (2-0, 2.16) gets the ball for Toronto opposite Kyle Bradish (2-6, 3.86) in a 12:15 PM ET first pitch at Camden Yards. Miles has mostly worked out of the pen this year but is stretched out enough to give Toronto a real start; Bradish has actually pitched well lately with nothing to show for it, having allowed just 3 earned runs over his last 2 outings.

Toronto Blue Jays
Spencer Miles
(3-1)·3.40 ERA
May 10 vs Angels
ND
3.0IP
0ER
2K
0BB
38P
05/31 Lineup
Baltimore Orioles
Kyle Bradish
(3-7)·4.30 ERA
May 25 vs Rays
ND
6.0IP
1ER
3K
2BB
92P
05/31 Lineup

This series has been absurd. Every game decided by a run, every winning run scored in the 8th or 9th. Toronto came back from 5 down on Friday, Baltimore answered Saturday by sending 8 straight batters to the plate in a 5-run 9th to walk it off 6-5. The split-the-difference rubber game is the only fair outcome left, and somebody's going to leave Camden Yards angry.

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
(29-30)
May 30L@ Orioles5-6
May 29W@ Orioles6-5
May 28W@ Orioles2-1
May 27Wvs Marlins2-1
May 26Wvs Marlins8-1
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
(27-32)
May 30Wvs Blue Jays6-5
May 29Lvs Blue Jays5-6
May 28Lvs Blue Jays1-2
May 27Wvs Rays11-2
May 26Wvs Rays6-1

The Blue Jays are still 8-3 over their last 11 even with that Saturday gut-punch. Vlad Jr. has pushed his average to .305 with 4 multi-hit games in his last 6, and Nathan Lukes is 7-for-16 since coming off the IL. Bradish, for his part, hasn't seen Toronto in over 2 years (May 2024) and owns a 5.18 ERA in 8 career starts against them with 6 homers allowed in 40 innings. The matchup history isn't kind.

Toronto is also navigating one of the gnarlier injury sheets in the league. Scherzer is finally heading to Triple-A Buffalo for a rehab start, Bieber is building back up in the FCL, but Dylan Cease (hamstring), Berrios (Tommy John), Kirk (thumb), and Barger (elbow) are all out. Baltimore's not exactly whole either — Mountcastle, Westburg, Eflin, Kremer, and closer Felix Bautista are all on the shelf, and catcher Samuel Basallo tweaked a pec in that 9th-inning rally Saturday.

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
(19)
  • Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart (C) — no05/08
  • Day-To-DayChay Yeager (RP) — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayCJ Stubbs (C) — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.05/08
  • Day-To-DayJaven Coleman (P) — no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILAddison Barger (RF) — Barger (elbow) has been hitting in the batting cage at Toronto's complex in Dunedin, Florida, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/30
  • 10-Day-ILLenyn Sosa (2B) — Sosa went 2-for-5 with a solo home run, an additional run and an additional RBI on Saturday against the Twins in an 11-4 victory.05/28
  • 15-Day-ILDylan Cease (SP) — Cease (hamstring) is throwing a bullpen session of 25-to-30 pitches Saturday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/30
  • 15-Day-ILJoe Mantiply (RP) — Mantiply will undergo arthroscopic surgery to repair some damage in his left knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/28
  • 15-Day-ILMax Scherzer (SP) — Scherzer (forearm) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Buffalo on Sunday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/28
  • 15-Day-ILTommy Nance (RP) — Manager John Schneider said Tuesday that the outlook for Nance's forearm injury is a "best case" scenario, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.05/19
  • developmental listFernando Perez (P)
  • 60-Day-ILAlejandro Kirk (C) — Kirk (thumb) has been taking on-field batting practice and is expected to begin hitting off a high-velocity pitching machine in the coming days, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/30
  • 60-Day-ILLazaro Estrada (RP) — The Blue Jays transferred Estrada (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/28
  • 60-Day-ILJose Berrios (SP) — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.05/27
  • 60-Day-ILShane Bieber (SP) — Bieber (elbow) allowed three hits while striking out three batters across two scoreless innings in his rehab start Monday in the rookie-level Florida Complex League.05/25
  • 60-Day-ILYimi Garcia (RP) — Manager John Schneider said Garcia (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/22
  • 60-Day-ILAnthony Santander (RF) — Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILCody Ponce (SP) — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILBowden Francis (SP) — The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
(15)
  • Day-To-DaySamuel Basallo (C) — Basallo tweaked a pectoral muscle during his plate appearance in the ninth inning of Saturday's 6-5 win over the Blue Jays, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/30
  • Day-To-DayLevi Wells (P) — Wells underwent successful core-muscle surgery Thursday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/28
  • Day-To-DayRichard Guasch (SP) — no05/08
  • Day-To-DayWill Robertson (LF) — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayLuis Vazquez (SS) — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILDylan Beavers (RF) — Beavers (oblique) hit in the batting cage Wednesday, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/27
  • 15-Day-ILRyan Helsley (RP) — Helsley (elbow) threw 15-to-20 pitches in a bullpen session Saturday and may be nearing a minor-league rehab assignment, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/30
  • 15-Day-ILCade Povich (SP) — Povich (elbow) met with Dr. Keith Meister on Tuesday and is without an official timetable for his return after receiving a cortisone injection, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/19
  • 60-Day-ILDean Kremer (SP) — The Orioles transferred Kremer (quadriceps) to the 60-day injured list Friday, MLB.com reports.05/31
  • 60-Day-ILColin Selby (RP) — Selby was recently evaluated by Dr. Chris Looze in Baltimore due to ongoing symptoms with his injured right shoulder, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/19
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Mountcastle (1B) — General manager Mike Elias said Friday that Mountcastle is expected to return sometime in late June or July, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/15
  • 60-Day-ILJordan Westburg (3B) — Westburg (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Andrew Golden of TheBanner.com reports.05/15
  • 60-Day-ILYaramil Hiraldo (RP) — The Orioles announced Monday that Hiraldo (shoulder) has resumed a throwing program, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/11
  • 60-Day-ILZach Eflin (SP) — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILFelix Bautista (RP) — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/08

The market reads this one close: Pinnacle has Baltimore -118 with the total parked at 8.5. Given the way the first 3 went, the under feels like wishful thinking and the moneyline is a coin flip with a Bradish-shaped tilt. Spencer Miles facing this lineup for the first time is the wildcard — Orioles hitters have zero book on him, but he's also never seen this kind of lineup turning over 3 times. Whoever blinks late, again, loses.

Sources

MLBToronto Blue JaysBaltimore OriolesPolymarketKalshiSpencer MilesKyle Bradish