Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
TOR	0	4	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7	8	0
SD	2	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	—	8	8	1

Rookie Trey Yesavage (4-4, 3.31 ERA) gets the ball for Toronto looking to back up Friday's win with another strong turn, while Walker Buehler tries to find anything resembling the pitcher who dominated in June before San Diego turns the page into the All-Star break.

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Total

Blue Jays(45-49)

WWWLL

7

+1.5-203-100o7.5-111

Padres(46-48)

LLWWL

8

-1.5+203+104u7.5+108

Best BetPadres -117

Pregame

Buehler's last two starts are ugly, but the Padres are still catching this line as the shorter-priced side, and San Diego has the deeper, healthier roster on paper even with the rotation dinged up. Backing the home team here is a bet that one bad week from Buehler doesn't erase his June form, and that a Petco crowd and better bullpen depth push San Diego back on track.

Buehler's June was genuinely great — a 1.71 ERA over five starts had folks in San Diego believing the name recognition was finally matching the results. Then July happened. He's been torched for 16 earned runs across his last two outings, including a nine-run disaster against the Cubs, and the shine from that rebound is gone. San Diego's bullpen isn't walking through that door to bail him out either, with Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada and Matt Waldron all still working back from injury.

Trey Yesavage

(4-5)·3.92 ERA

Jul 5 @ Mariners

L

6.0IP

2ER

7K

2BB

96P

07/11 Lineup

Walker Buehler

(6-5)·5.23 ERA

Jul 6 vs Diamondbacks

L

5.0IP

7ER

4K

1BB

93P

07/11 Lineup

Toronto's issues are different but real. Yesavage has swing-and-miss stuff and a legitimate Rookie of the Year case, but his control has been an adventure — he's walked at least two batters in 9 of his 13 starts, including a 7-walk outing against Baltimore. Free passes against a Padres lineup that's shown flashes, like the 10-run outburst against Arizona on July 9, could get expensive in a hurry.

The Blue Jays clearly have the better vibes right now. They've won 3 straight, beat up on the Giants for a combined 19 runs over two games, and then went into Petco Friday night and beat San Diego outright, 5-3. Toronto is still under .500 at 45-49, but this doesn't look like the same limp offense that was getting shut out by Seattle a week ago — Ernie Clement alone is hitting .341 over his last dozen games.

Toronto Blue Jays

(45-49)

Jul 11W@ Padres5-3

Jul 8W@ Giants10-0

Jul 8W@ Giants9-3

Jul 7L@ Giants1-10

Jul 5L@ Mariners0-4

San Diego Padres

(46-48)

Jul 11Lvs Blue Jays3-5

Jul 10Lvs Diamondbacks1-3

Jul 9Wvs Diamondbacks10-4

Jul 8Wvs Diamondbacks4-1

Jul 7Lvs Diamondbacks0-8

San Diego, meanwhile, is walking into this series banged up and searching for answers in the rotation. Randy Vasquez just went down, David Morgan and Freddy Fermin are working back from their own injuries, and now the guy at the top of the rotation is the one giving up crooked numbers. A series loss here, right before the break, would sting a Padres team that's still bunched up in a tight NL West race at 46-48.

Toronto Blue Jays

(10)

• 10-Day-ILAddison Barger (RF) — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Monday that Barger (elbow) will be shut down for a couple of weeks after a recent MRI revealed a stress reaction in his back, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.06/29
• 10-Day-ILJesus Sanchez (RF) — The Blue Jays placed Sanchez on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a right ankle sprain.06/27
• 10-Day-ILLenyn Sosa (2B) — Sosa (wrist) will begin a rehab assignment Monday with the Blue Jays' Arizona Complex League affiliate, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.06/22
• 15-Day-ILMax Scherzer (SP) — Scherzer (back) was charged with five runs (four earned) on six hits and no walks over four innings in a rehab start with Triple-A Buffalo on Wednesday. He struck out five.07/09
• 60-Day-ILYimi Garcia (RP) — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Monday that Garcia (elbow/neck/biceps) has resumed playing catch, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.06/29
• 60-Day-ILAnthony Santander (RF) — Santander (shoulder) could resume hitting within the next week, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.06/18
• 60-Day-ILJoe Mantiply (RP) — Mantiply will undergo arthroscopic surgery to repair some damage in his left knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.06/04
• 60-Day-ILJose Berrios (SP) — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.05/27
• 60-Day-ILCody Ponce (SP) — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
• 60-Day-ILBowden Francis (SP) — The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08

San Diego Padres

(13)

• 10-Day-ILFreddy Fermin (C) — Fermin (head) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A El Paso on Wednesday, going 1-for-4 with an RBI.07/09
• 10-Day-ILSamad Taylor (LF) — Taylor said Wednesday that he exited Tuesday's game against the Diamondbacks with a right side injury, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.07/08
• 15-Day-ILRandy Vasquez (SP) — no07/11
• 15-Day-ILDavid Morgan (RP) — Morgan (knee) began a throwing progression this week, per MLB.com.07/11
• 15-Day-ILJason Adam (RP) — Adam said Friday that an MRI on his right shoulder revealed no major structural damage, and he's hopeful to return from the 15-day injured list in early-to-mid August, MLB.com reports.07/07
• 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron (RP) — Waldron (forearm) struck out one batter while allowing one run on eight hits and no walks over four innings in a rehab start Wednesday with Triple-A El Paso.07/07
• 15-Day-ILJeremiah Estrada (RP) — Estrada (knee) threw a bullpen session Saturday, his first since landing on the injured list June 5, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.07/07
• 15-Day-ILLucas Giolito (SP) — Giolito (elbow) resumed light throwing in late June, per MLB.com.07/03
• OutYu Darvish (SP) — Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.05/12
• 60-Day-ILNick Pivetta (SP) — Pivetta (forearm) threw a light bullpen session Saturday, MLB.com reports.06/29
• 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove (SP) — Musgrove (elbow) started playing catch in late May, per MLB.com.06/08
• 60-Day-ILRamon Laureano (LF) — Laureano underwent surgery Friday to repair his torn right labrum, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/05
• 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing (RP) — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08

Toronto has the rookie with swagger and a lineup that's waking up; San Diego has the name-brand arm who can't find the strike zone consistently and a bullpen running on fumes. Something has to give this weekend at Petco.