It's an 11:45 AM first pitch in Minnesota, which is a polite way of saying both teams better hope they had coffee. The Twins are 15-20 and treading water, the Jays are coming in with their own scuffles, and the early line has Toronto as a slight favorite on the moneyline.
The pitching matchup is the story before anyone throws a pitch. Joe Ryan is listed day-to-day with right elbow soreness after being pulled from his last outing, and the Twins rotation is already missing Pablo Lopez (60-day IL), David Festa (60-day IL) and Mick Abel. Even if Ryan ends up taking the ball, the bullpen behind him is short — Cole Sands and Garrett Acton are both on the 15-day IL — so any early trouble lands directly on Derek Shelton's shortest leash.
- Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart C — no
- Day-To-DayChay Yeager RP — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- Day-To-DayCJ Stubbs C — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
- Day-To-DayJaven Coleman P — no
- 10-Day-ILNathan Lukes RF — Lukes (hamstring) has begun a running progression, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- 10-Day-ILAddison Barger RF — Manager John Schneider said Barger (ankle) is traveling to Toronto on Friday and will "most likely" be activated off the injured list Saturday, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- 10-Day-ILAlejandro Kirk C — Kirk (thumb) is expected to begin hitting this weekend, Brian Murphy of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILMax Scherzer SP — Scherzer was given a cortisone shot in his injured right forearm and will be shut down from throwing for five days, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- Day-To-DayCory Lewis SP — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather RP — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino SP — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins CF — Jenkins was diagnosed Monday with a Grade 2 AC joint sprain in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated in 10 days, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILCody Laweryson RP — The Twins placed Laweryson (forearm) on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to Thursday.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Acton RP — The Twins placed Acton on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right shoulder strain, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Sands RP — Sands (shoulder) is beginning a rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul on Wednesday, Brandon Warne of Access Twins reports.
- 15-Day-ILMick Abel SP — Abel (elbow) was given a cortisone injection after feeling soreness in his right triceps following a simulated game Saturday, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
Toronto's recent profile is more encouraging than the standings suggest. The Jays have played better baseball over their last two-plus weeks, taking a string of series, and Ernie Clement has gone from depth piece to legitimate All-Star case. That's the kind of thing that travels on a road trip — a lineup that doesn't need its stars to carry every night because the bottom half is actually producing.
The market reflects how close this one looks. Pinnacle has the moneyline within a coin flip, the spread sits at the standard 1.5, and the total is parked at 8 with juice on the over. None of the EVs jump off the page, which tracks: low total, early start, a Twins lineup missing CF prospect Walker Jenkins, and a rotation question hanging over the home dugout.
The Twins have alternated wins and losses in their last five and haven't strung anything together since the calendar flipped. If Ryan can't go deep — or can't go at all — Minnesota is asking a thinned-out staff to cover a full game against a Jays lineup that's been swinging it. Toronto's job is to make them prove they can. Take the early lead, force the bullpen into the middle innings, and let the road team do road-team things on a Sunday matinee.