Toronto opens this four-game set as the underdog on paper, but Dylan Cease has been a problem for everyone. He's punched out 26 hitters across his last 3 starts, each of them 7-plus innings, and his 2.41 ERA is doing real work for a Jays team that has been mostly treading water. The Yankees, meanwhile, dropped the Subway Series and have now lost 3 straight series. Not the vibe you want walking into a Cease start.
Will Warren has quietly been one of the better stories in the Bronx with Gerrit Cole and Max Fried both shelved. He's 5-1 with a 3.42 ERA and the Yankees are 7-2 in his outings. The one wobble was Texas tagging him for 6 earned, but before that he'd strung together 5 straight starts with 7-plus strikeouts. With Aaron Judge currently doing Aaron Judge things — reigning AL Player of the Month with 12 homers in May — Warren only needs to keep the Jays in the ballpark.
- Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart C — no
- Day-To-DayChay Yeager RP — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- Day-To-DayCJ Stubbs C — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
- Day-To-DayJaven Coleman P — no
- 10-Day-ILAddison Barger RF — Barger (elbow) was in Toronto for a follow-up exam Monday, seeking the green light to start hitting and throwing Tuesday, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- 10-Day-ILNathan Lukes RF — Lukes (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Monday, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- 10-Day-ILAlejandro Kirk C — Kirk (thumb) is expected to begin hitting this weekend, Brian Murphy of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILMax Scherzer SP — Scherzer (forearm/thumb/ankle) threw a 20-pitch bullpen session Monday, Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com reports.
- Day-To-DayTravis MacGregor SP — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJose Caballero SS — Caballero (finger) played catch Monday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez LF — Dominguez (shoulder) has been swinging a bat in the pool and working out in the weight room, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 10-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton DH — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that Stanton (calf) is doing "more dynamic stuff" but isn't yet ready to ramp up running, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 15-Day-ILGerrit Cole SP — Manager Aaron Boone said Monday that the Yankees are discussing the possibility of Cole (elbow) making his season debut this weekend against the Rays, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILMax Fried SP — The Yankees placed Fried on the 15-day injured list Friday due to a left elbow bone bruise, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 15-Day-ILAngel Chivilli RP — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILClarke Schmidt SP — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
Injury-wise this game tells a story. Toronto is down Jose Berrios (elbow surgery Wednesday), Max Scherzer, Bowden Francis, Shane Bieber, Anthony Santander and Alejandro Kirk. That's a rotation and a lineup gutted. The Yankees are missing Cole, Fried, Giancarlo Stanton and Jasson Dominguez, but Cole could be back this weekend against the Rays per Aaron Boone. Toronto's bench is just thinner, full stop.
The market is leaning hard on the home side. Yankees are -177 at DK with 87% of the bets and 83% of the handle on the moneyline — the public sees Judge, sees Toronto's banged-up roster, and clicks. The interesting number from the model: the Jays moneyline at +146 actually grades out with positive EV against Pinnacle's fair price. Not a smash, but a real edge if you trust Cease to keep this a coin flip.
The total is the spot where these books disagree — Pinnacle at 8.5, DK at 9.0 — which usually means a true number sitting in between. Two strikeout starters, a Yankee Stadium short porch, and a Toronto lineup that hasn't exactly been raking. The under is where most of the bets are, but the handle is on the over. Bet light, watch the wind, and remember that Toronto went 11-6 against the Yankees in 2025 including the playoffs. They're not scared of this building.