Will Warren has quietly been one of the better stories in the Bronx with Gerrit Cole and Max Fried both shelved. He's 5-1 with a 3.42 ERA and the Yankees are 7-2 in his outings. The one wobble was Texas tagging him for 6 earned, but before that he'd strung together 5 straight starts with 7-plus strikeouts. With Aaron Judge currently doing Aaron Judge things — reigning AL Player of the Month with 12 homers in May — Warren only needs to keep the Jays in the ballpark.
- Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart (C) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayChay Yeager (RP) — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayCJ Stubbs (C) — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.05/08
- Day-To-DayJaven Coleman (P) — no05/08
- 10-Day-ILAddison Barger (RF) — Barger (elbow) was in Toronto for a follow-up exam Monday, seeking the green light to start hitting and throwing Tuesday, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/19
- 10-Day-ILNathan Lukes (RF) — Lukes (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Monday, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/15
- 10-Day-ILAlejandro Kirk (C) — Kirk (thumb) is expected to begin hitting this weekend, Brian Murphy of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILMax Scherzer (SP) — Scherzer (forearm/thumb/ankle) threw a 20-pitch bullpen session Monday, Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com reports.05/18
- 15-Day-ILTommy Nance (RP) — The Blue Jays placed Nance on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to right forearm discomfort.05/17
- 15-Day-ILJose Berrios (SP) — Berrios will undergo surgery to repair his right elbow Wednesday, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.05/16
- developmental listFernando Perez (P)
- 15-Day-ILLazaro Estrada (RP) — The Blue Jays placed Estrada on the MLB 15-day injured list April 5 with a right shoulder impingement, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILYimi Garcia (RP) — The Blue Jays announced Tuesday that Garcia's (elbow) next rehab outing in the rookie-level Florida Complex League will be delayed for at least a couple of days, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/11
- 60-Day-ILShane Bieber (SP) — Bieber (elbow) will face live hitters Tuesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILAnthony Santander (RF) — Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCody Ponce (SP) — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBowden Francis (SP) — The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- Day-To-DayTravis MacGregor (SP) — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJose Caballero (SS) — Caballero (finger) played catch Monday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.05/18
- 10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez (LF) — Dominguez (shoulder) has been swinging a bat in the pool and working out in the weight room, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.05/18
- 10-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton (DH) — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that Stanton (calf) is doing "more dynamic stuff" but isn't yet ready to ramp up running, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.05/18
- 15-Day-ILGerrit Cole (SP) — Manager Aaron Boone said Monday that the Yankees are discussing the possibility of Cole (elbow) making his season debut this weekend against the Rays, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports.05/18
- 15-Day-ILMax Fried (SP) — The Yankees placed Fried on the 15-day injured list Friday due to a left elbow bone bruise, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.05/15
- 15-Day-ILAngel Chivilli (RP) — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILClarke Schmidt (SP) — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.05/08
Injury-wise this game tells a story. Toronto is down Jose Berrios (elbow surgery Wednesday), Max Scherzer, Bowden Francis, Shane Bieber, Anthony Santander and Alejandro Kirk. That's a rotation and a lineup gutted. The Yankees are missing Cole, Fried, Giancarlo Stanton and Jasson Dominguez, but Cole could be back this weekend against the Rays per Aaron Boone. Toronto's bench is just thinner, full stop.
The market is leaning hard on the home side. Yankees are -177 at DK with 87% of the bets and 83% of the handle on the moneyline — the public sees Judge, sees Toronto's banged-up roster, and clicks. The interesting number from the model: the Jays moneyline at +146 actually grades out with positive EV against Pinnacle's fair price. Not a smash, but a real edge if you trust Cease to keep this a coin flip.
The total is the spot where these books disagree — Pinnacle at 8.5, DK at 9.0 — which usually means a true number sitting in between. Two strikeout starters, a Yankee Stadium short porch, and a Toronto lineup that hasn't exactly been raking. The under is where most of the bets are, but the handle is on the over. Bet light, watch the wind, and remember that Toronto went 11-6 against the Yankees in 2025 including the playoffs. They're not scared of this building.