The Yankees sit at 30-20 and the Blue Jays at 22-27, and yet the most interesting thing about Monday night is that the pitching matchup is somehow weirder than the records suggest. Toronto is handing the ball to Braydon Fisher, a 2-1, 3.08 ERA arm whose job description has mostly read 'opener' or 'bulk relief.' New York counters with Carlos Rodón, who finally got off the IL this month and immediately looked like a guy who hadn't pitched in a while.
Rodón's first 2 starts back went like this: 4.1 innings and 5 walks against the Brewers, then 3.2 innings and 3 more walks against the Mets. 8 walks in 8 innings is not a recipe for surviving a Vladdy Jr. lineup, even one playing without Alejandro Kirk and Anthony Santander. The velocity is there — he averaged 95.7 mph on the heater in his debut — the command is not.
- Day-To-DayJesus Sanchez RF — Sanchez is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Yankees.
- Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart C — no
- Day-To-DayChay Yeager RP — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- Day-To-DayCJ Stubbs C — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
- Day-To-DayJaven Coleman P — no
- 10-Day-ILAlejandro Kirk C — Kirk has not been cleared to take full batting practice yet because he still feels a bit of soreness in his surgically repaired left thumb while hitting, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILAddison Barger RF — Barger (elbow) was in Toronto for a follow-up exam Monday, seeking the green light to start hitting and throwing Tuesday, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- 10-Day-ILNathan Lukes RF — Lukes (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Monday, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- Day-To-DayTrent Grisham CF — Grisham is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Blue Jays.
- Day-To-DayTravis MacGregor SP — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez LF — Dominguez (shoulder) resumed hitting off a tee Wednesday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 10-Day-ILJose Caballero SS — Caballero (finger) played catch Monday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 10-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton DH — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that Stanton (calf) is doing "more dynamic stuff" but isn't yet ready to ramp up running, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 15-Day-ILGerrit Cole SP — Manager Aaron Boone announced Tuesday that Cole (elbow) will be reinstated from the 15-day injured list to make his season debut Friday versus the Rays, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILMax Fried SP — The Yankees placed Fried on the 15-day injured list Friday due to a left elbow bone bruise, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 15-Day-ILAngel Chivilli RP — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
The injury column is doing a lot of heavy lifting on both sides. Toronto's rotation is held together with tape — Berrios just had Tommy John plus a stress fracture repair, Bieber is finally close to rehab games, Scherzer is still on bullpens, Bowden Francis is on the 60-day. That's why Fisher is starting in the Bronx in the first place. The Yankees aren't exactly full strength either, with Max Fried's elbow bone bruise, Stanton, Jasson Dominguez and Trent Grisham all unavailable Monday.
The market has made up its mind. Yankees -1.5 is the popular play at DraftKings — 74% of bets, 89% of handle on the run line — and the moneyline is sitting around -164 to -166. The total is the weird part: DK has it at 7.5, with the over getting 51% of bets but only 27% of the money. If there's a sharp angle, it's the under.
The actual game-script question is simple. Can Fisher keep the ball in the yard for 3 trips through a lineup that runs Judge, Rice, Bellinger, Chisholm? And if Rodón walks the leadoff guy in 3 of his first 4 innings, does Boone have the bullpen depth to cover 5+ frames without burning the high-leverage arms? Toronto needs to make Rodón throw strikes early. If they don't, the moneyline price looks like a gift in retrospect.
First pitch is 6:05 PM ET at the Stadium, with YES and MLB Network on the call. Anything more than 6 innings from either starter would be a small upset on its own.