Atlanta has the top record in MLB. Los Angeles owns the NL West. Friday night at Dodger Stadium, the league's two heavyweights kick off a three-game series, and the Braves are sending the closest thing to a sure thing they've got.
Chris Sale is 6-1 with a 2.14 ERA, and the deeper you dig the scarier it gets. Over his last 4 starts he's gone 4-0 with a 1.04 ERA, 33 strikeouts and 7 walks across 26 innings. His most recent outing in Colorado: 7 innings, 1 run, 11 punchouts. He's been the league's best pitcher for a month and the Dodgers' shorthanded lineup is the next test.
Emmet Sheehan has the unenviable assignment of matching him. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 5.23 ERA and is essentially auditioning to keep his rotation spot before Blake Snell comes back from the 15-day IL. Sheehan's start before last was his best of the year — 1 run over 6.1 innings with 10 strikeouts — but he stumbled in St. Louis on May 2. He needs another sharp one here or the rotation math gets ugly fast.
The injury lists are a horror show on both sides. Atlanta is without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), Jurickson Profar (suspension), and a starting rotation that's down Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Hurston Waldrep. The Dodgers counter with no Mookie Betts, no Tommy Edman, no Enrique Hernandez, and a bullpen missing Edwin Diaz, Evan Phillips, and Brusdar Graterol. Tyler Glasnow is day-to-day. It is the most expensive M*A*S*H unit in sports.
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter RP — no
- Day-To-DayJorge Mateo SS — no
- 10-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr. RF — no
- 10-Day-ILHa-Seong Kim SS — no
- 15-Day-ILHurston Waldrep SP — no
- suspensionJurickson Profar LF — no
- 15-Day-ILDylan Dodd RP — no
- 60-Day-ILDanny Young RP — no
- Day-To-DayTyler Glasnow SP — no
- 10-Day-ILTommy Edman 2B — no
- 10-Day-ILMookie Betts SS — no
- 15-Day-ILBen Casparius RP — no
- 15-Day-ILEdwin Diaz RP — no
- 15-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol RP — no
- 15-Day-ILBlake Snell SP — no
- 60-Day-ILLandon Knack SP — no
The market has the Dodgers as a -115 home favorite with the total at 8. Sale is the reason that line isn't longer in LA's favor — the Braves' offense leads MLB at 5.61 runs per game and 55 homers, even without Acuna. If you trust the ace and the bats traveling well, the Braves are live underdogs. If you trust home-field and a deeper lineup against any pitcher not named Sale, the Dodgers' price is fair.
Game theory says back the better pitcher. Atlanta has him. Sheehan's job is to keep this within reach long enough for the Dodgers' bullpen to do work in the late innings — easier said than done when Sale is on a 1.04-ERA heater. First pitch 9:10 PM CT.