Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers

Sat Oct 31:00 PM PTFOXLos Angeles, CA
By JR·3 min read
Braves(94-68)
Dodgers(100-62)
Saturday 10/031:00 PM

TLDR: Atlanta went through Philadelphia to get here and is landing in Los Angeles with the rotation in pieces. The Dodgers got a week off and their ace lined up, but the Braves took 5 of 6 from them this year.

SAT OCT 3, 1:00 PMFOX
(94-68)
WLWLW
(100-62)
WWWLL
1st pitch103°

The NLDS opens with a 100-win Dodgers team, rested and probably starting Yamamoto, hosting a Braves team that beat them in 5 of 6 regular-season games but had to use up its rotation to get past Philadelphia. With Sale, Mahle and Pérez all unavailable, Atlanta is likely to pitch Game 1 with relievers and spot starters. Ohtani's slump and very hot weather are the biggest unknowns.

Atlanta Braves
  • Won 5 of 6 vs LA, outscored them 26-15
  • Harris, Albies, Olson all homered in Game 3
  • Baldwin homered off Yamamoto in August's 1-0 win
  • No healthy starter for Game 1
  • Played Thursday night, then a cross-country day game
  • Fuentes unavailable; Mahle still hurting
Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Yamamoto rested and lined up for Game 1
  • Scott, Sasaki and Díaz available to close
  • 100-62, rested since sweeping the last 3 at SF
  • Ohtani .666 OPS over his last 29 games
  • Lost the season series to Atlanta 5-1
  • Treinen out for the year

Neither club has named a starter for Saturday, October 3. According to MLB.com, the Dodgers have Yoshinobu Yamamoto lined up, since starting him in Game 1 is the only way he can also pitch a Game 5 on normal rest. His .182 opponents' average ranked 3rd among qualified starters. Atlanta's situation is much messier. Chris Sale can't go before Game 2, Tyler Mahle before Game 3, and Martín Pérez's back keeps him out until Game 3 as well. That leaves Grant Holmes, who threw 2 innings Thursday, J.R. Ritchie, or a straight opener. It will probably be a bullpen game.

The Mahle news is worse than it first sounded. Walt Weiss said Mahle hurt his abdomen warming up for Game 2 against the Phillies and almost didn't start. He threw 7 innings of 1-run ball anyway, but Atlanta is now moving him back in the rotation. On the other side, Shohei Ohtani has a .666 OPS over his last 29 games after biceps and knee problems, per MLB.com. A Dodgers lineup with a struggling Ohtani is still a 100-win lineup, but it isn't scaring anyone the way it usually does.

The Braves' offense got them here. In the winner-take-all Game 3 against Philadelphia, Michael Harris II hit a 3-run homer in the 1st, Ozzie Albies added a 2-run shot, Matt Olson hit a solo homer, and Ray Kerr kept the Phillies quiet in a 6-2 win. Then they flew across the country for a 1:00 PM PT first pitch less than 2 days later. That's a hard trip for a team that already had to empty its pitching staff to win a 3-game series.

10/01WvsPhillies6-2
09/30LvsPhillies3-4
09/29WvsPhillies5-3
09/27L@Marlins3-5
09/26W@Marlins8-3
09/27W@Giants5-1
09/26W@Giants4-3
09/25W@Giants2-0
09/24LvsPadres2-4
09/23LvsPadres1-5

Atlanta has no reason to be scared of this matchup, though. The Braves won 5 of the 6 regular-season meetings and outscored Los Angeles 26-15. Their most recent win came against Yamamoto: Drake Baldwin led off the August 27 game with a homer, and that held up in a 1-0 win. Los Angeles finished with the better record, 100-62 against 94-68, and won its last 3 at San Francisco before the bye. But the Dodgers lost the season series to this team clearly.

The Dodgers have more bullpen depth than Atlanta in a game that will probably be decided by relievers. Tanner Scott, Roki Sasaki and Edwin Díaz can all close, and Edgardo Henriquez is expected back after working out during the bye. Blake Treinen is done for the year with a shoulder injury, so Dave Roberts loses a veteran he could have used in the middle innings. Atlanta is down Didier Fuentes, but Robert Suarez's velocity is back up. Weather could matter too: the forecast calls for 102 degrees under clouds with almost no wind at an afternoon start, which is good hitting weather for any reliever who leaves a pitch up.

The question for Game 1 is how many outs the Braves can get from pitchers who weren't supposed to be starting in October. If Yamamoto goes deep, Atlanta has to win a low-scoring game. If the Braves' lineup gets to him the way it did in August, the 5-1 season series stops looking like a fluke.

NLDS Game 1: Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers — Short-handed Braves bring a bullpen plan to Dodger Stadium for NLDS Game 1 | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush