Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Atlanta brings 93 wins into the last weekend of the regular season, and Miami has 3 games left to play spoiler at loanDepot park. The Braves are mostly setting up October, and the Marlins are mostly finding out what Eury Pérez has left.

FRI SEP 25, 7:10 PM
Spread
WIN
Total
(93-66)
LWLWW
(78-81)
LWWLL

The 93-66 Braves open the final regular-season series in Miami still juggling a rotation short Martín Pérez, Strider, Schwellenbach and Elder. Eury Pérez makes his last start for the 78-81 Marlins after a 5-start fade late in a season where he's well past his career innings high. Both bullpens are depleted, so the game likely turns on how deep either starter gets.

Braves
  • Face Pérez amid a 5-start, 24 earned-run fade
  • Miami's late-inning relievers mostly on the IL
  • 2-0 against Houston in the last 5
  • No confirmed starter for this game
  • Martín Pérez out, likely until the NLCS
  • Lost 7-6 to Cincinnati in the latest game
Marlins
  • Have taken 2 of the first 3 at Wrigley
  • Braves rotation short multiple starters
  • Home under the roof
  • Pérez's last 5: 26 runs in 21.1 innings
  • Fairbanks, Bender both out for surgery
  • Edwards (thumb) and Caissie out of the lineup

Eury Pérez (7-11, 4.14) makes his final start of the season at home, and the last month hasn't been kind to him. Over his last 5 starts he has allowed 26 runs, 24 of them earned, in 21.1 innings, with 7 home runs. His last time out, the Padres got 5 runs off him on 8 hits in 4.2 innings, and it took him 97 pitches to get that far. He's in his first full season back from Tommy John and is already well past his previous career high for innings. Atlanta hasn't posted a starter on this board. One series preview lists Grant Holmes, but until the Braves confirm it, treat that as a projection.

Atlanta Braves
TBD
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TBD
ND
—IP
—ER
—K
—BB
—P
09/25 Lineup
Eury Pérez
Eury Pérez
(7-11)·4.14 ERA
Sep 19 @ Padres
ND
4.2IP
5ER
4K
3BB
97P
09/25 Lineup

Atlanta's pitching staff is thin in a way that matters right now. Martín Pérez went on the 15-day IL with lower back inflammation after 26 starts at a 3.04 ERA, and Walt Weiss has said he likely isn't back before the NLCS. Strider, Schwellenbach and Elder are also out, and Hurston Waldrep was recalled Thursday and placed straight onto the 60-day IL. Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder) is out of the bullpen too. None of that has kept Atlanta from being priced as the road favorite.

Miami's bullpen may be in even worse shape. Pete Fairbanks and Anthony Bender are both headed for surgery, and Andrew Nardi, William Kempner and Ronny Henriquez are all on the 60-day IL. Owen Caissie is out with a lumbar stress reaction, and Xavier Edwards (thumb) has been sitting out as a day-to-day. The Marlins still have taken 2 of the first 3 against the Cubs at Wrigley, including an 8-2 blowout, and then scored just 1 run in the most recent game.

09/24LvsReds6-7
09/23WvsReds3-2
09/22LvsReds0-4
09/20W@Astros4-2
09/19W@Astros6-3
09/24L@Cubs1-2
09/23W@Cubs3-2
09/22W@Cubs8-2
09/20L@Padres3-7
09/19L@Padres6-7

The Braves' recent form is uneven. They're 2-0 against Houston in the last 5 and have taken 1 of the first 3 against Cincinnati. The Reds shut them out 4-0 in that set and beat them 7-6 in the latest game. Atlanta is 3-2 in the last 5 and lost its last game, so for a 93-66 club it isn't exactly rolling into October. Keeping the lineup sharp while protecting the arms is the whole job this weekend.

  • 10-Day-ILLane Thomas (LF) — Thomas (intercostal) took some swings off a tee Tuesday.09/22
  • 15-Day-ILNewMartin Perez (SP) — Perez didn't factor into the decision Sunday against Houston, striking out two while allowing one run on six hits and two walks in 4.1 innings.09/24
  • 15-Day-ILReynaldo Lopez (RP) — Lopez (4-5) took the loss in Monday's 7-3 loss against the Cubs after allowing five runs on six hits and two walks with two strikeouts over three innings. After the game, manager Walt Weiss stated that Lopez may be placed on the injured list due to a shoulder injury.09/15
  • 15-Day-ILBryce Elder (SP) — Atlanta placed Elder on the 15-day injured list Wednesday due to arthroscopic right knee surgery.09/09
  • suspensionJurickson Profar (LF) — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILNewHurston Waldrep (SP) — Atlanta recalled Waldrep (elbow) from Triple-A Gwinnett on Thursday and placed him on the 60-day injured list.09/24
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Jimenez (RP) — Jimenez (knee) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Gwinnett on Tuesday.09/15
  • 60-Day-ILSpencer Strider (SP) — Strider (elbow) is not expected to return to Atlanta's active roster before the end of this season.08/28
  • 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach (SP) — Schwellenbach will undergo season-ending surgery to repair a fracture in his right elbow.08/28
  • 60-Day-ILJoey Wentz (RP) — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
  • Day-To-DayXavier Edwards (2B) — Edwards (thumb) remains out of the lineup for Thursday's contest versus the Cubs.09/24
  • 10-Day-ILOwen Caissie (RF) — The Marlins placed Caissie on the 10-day injured list Sunday due to a lumbar stress reaction.09/13
  • 15-Day-ILAnthony Bender (RP) — Bender will undergo surgery to address the stress reaction in his right shin.09/19
  • 15-Day-ILPete Fairbanks (RP) — Fairbanks will undergo surgery to treat thoracic outlet syndrome.09/19
  • 15-Day-ILMax Meyer (SP) — Meyer (neck) has been shut down from throwing and will not return this season.09/15
  • 60-Day-ILAndrew Nardi (RP) — Nardi (elbow) is slated to undergo season-ending surgery Friday.08/24
  • 60-Day-ILWilliam Kempner (RP) — The Marlins transferred Kempner (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday.08/21
  • 60-Day-ILRobby Snelling (SP) — Snelling (elbow) is expected to begin a throwing program in September.08/07
  • 60-Day-ILAdam Mazur (SP) — Mazur (elbow) is expected to begin a throwing program sometime in September.08/07
  • 60-Day-ILRonny Henriquez (RP) — Henriquez (elbow) began playing catch from 60 feet out Friday.07/18

First pitch is 7:10 PM ET under the roof. With both bullpens this depleted, this is likely to come down to how long Pérez lasts and who Atlanta sends out after him.

Live Odds

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins — Braves Open the Final Weekend in Miami Against a Fading Eury Pérez | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush