A day after Francisco Lindor turned Citi Field into his personal batting cage, the Braves and Mets are back at it for the early half of a doubleheader — one team clinging to a division lead, the other just trying to feel something.
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ATLNYM
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Best BetBraves
Atlanta's still the better team top to bottom even with the rotation battered, and Grant Holmes gives them a real chance even in a short outing. New York just watched its best hitter go down for weeks, and pitching Sean Manaea in his first extended stretch back from an elbow issue is a lot to lean on in a getaway doubleheader opener.
Braves
+62-44, sit atop the NL East
+Won 3 of last 5 overall
−Rotation gutted: Strider, Schwellenbach, Smith-Shawver all out
−Got blown out 14-3 in last meeting
−Holmes routinely can't get past 5 innings
Mets
+Won 2 straight, including 14-3 rout of Atlanta
+Lindor swinging a hot bat
+Manaea's last start was his best in a while
−45-62, well out of playoff contention
−Just lost Juan Soto to a Grade 2 calf strain
−Manaea still building back from elbow trouble
First pitch for the opener is 1:10 PM ET, and Atlanta hands the ball to Grant Holmes (6-4, 3.79 ERA) against Sean Manaea (2-5, 4.52 ERA) for the Mets. Neither guy has been stretching deep into games lately — Holmes lasted 5.0 innings in his last outing against Baltimore, and that's become the pattern for him — while Manaea is still working his way back into form after an elbow issue cost him time.
The bigger story for New York is who's not in the lineup. Juan Soto is on the 10-day IL with a left calf strain, his second calf issue of the season, and this is a Grade 2 strain that could keep him out well beyond the minimum. That's a massive hole in a Mets order that still found a way to hang 14 runs on the Braves two days ago behind Lindor's two homers and a triple.
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ATL Braves
NYM Mets
Atlanta's answer for the absent arms in its own rotation has been bullpen games and short leashes, and it's shown — Strider, Schwellenbach and Smith-Shawver are all still on the 60-day IL, none of them close to a big-league return. The Braves have won enough games anyway to sit atop the NL East, but a lineup and pitching staff running on fumes late in July is a real risk in a getaway doubleheader spot.
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Recent form.
Momentum is a funny thing in a series like this. Atlanta took the first two meetings of this set before the Mets flipped the script, an 8-3 win followed by that 14-3 blowout, so whatever gap exists between a 62-44 team and a 45-62 team has looked awfully thin across the last two games. A getaway-day doubleheader after a gut-punch loss is exactly the spot where a slumping team can either snap back or spiral further.
Atlanta Braves
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
New York Mets
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Bottom line: the Braves are still the better roster on paper and still control their own division fate, but this particular week has exposed how thin that margin has gotten with the rotation banged up. The Mets have nothing to play for in the standings but plenty to play for in pride after getting run out of the ballpark twice — and now they'll try to do it again without their best hitter in the lineup.
