The bigger issue for Baltimore isn't the rotation, it's the lineup behind it. Both projected catchers, Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo, are out with wrist and shoulder issues respectively, which is a brutal spot for a team already fighting to stay above .500 in a stacked AL East.
Atlanta, meanwhile, is rolling. The Braves have won 4 of their last 5, took 3 of 4 from San Diego, and have the look of a team that finally has its pitching depth stabilizing even with Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and AJ Smith-Shawver all still sidelined. Elder's turned himself into a legitimate mid-rotation piece after two rough years bouncing between Atlanta and Triple-A, and he's given the Braves length and consistency all season.
The number that matters most for this series doesn't involve either starter. Atlanta is 37-16 when Ronald Acuna Jr. is in the lineup and 23-26 without him, and Walt Weiss said this week he expects the reigning face of the franchise activated before this weekend wraps in Baltimore. If Acuna's in the lineup for this one, the Braves' offense looks a whole lot scarier than the numbers on the page suggest.
Orioles fans have reason for optimism in Rogers, but this feels like a team still searching for its footing with the injury list piling up at the worst positions. Atlanta's got the healthier roster, the better recent form, and a potential superstar walking back through the door at the right time.