Atlanta's offense has been feast or famine and Pittsburgh's ace can't find his fastball — something gives Tuesday night at PNC Park.
Bush’s PicksPicks madeJul 7, 4:07 AM CT
+146+131ATLPIT-142
-147-154ATL +1.5PIT -1.5+139
-102Over 8.5Under 8.5-110
Best BetBraves +131
Atlanta's the moneyline play here, and it's more a bet against Paul Skenes right now than a bet on Waldrep. Skenes hasn't won in 9 straight starts and just got torched for 7 runs in 4 innings, so the price on the underdog looks generous given how fast this Braves lineup can erupt. Pittsburgh's deeper pitching staff is the counter, but Atlanta's the side with value tonight.
Braves
+Better overall record at 52-37
+Waldrep emerging as a legit rotation piece
+Capable of exploding for big innings (14-3 win)
−Lost 3 of last 5, including two 1-run losses
−Bullpen flagged as a concern entering last series
−Acuna, Kim and Perez all sidelined
Pirates
+Won last 2 of 3 vs. Nationals emphatically
+Lineup depth has boosted Skenes' run support
+Endy Rodriguez injury isn't IL-level (yet)
−Skenes winless in 9 straight starts
−Skenes' fastball velocity down, got rocked last time out
−Cruz and Horwitz both still out until after break
Hurston Waldrep (0-0, 3.68) takes the ball for Atlanta and Paul Skenes (6-8, 3.62) counters for Pittsburgh when the two clubs get going at 6:40 PM ET. Waldrep's carved out a real rotation spot after a strong finish to 2025, and he's coming off a 5.1-inning, 3-run outing against the Cardinals. Skenes is the tougher storyline — a pitcher with front-line stuff carrying a losing record and no win in his last 9 starts.
Atlanta's shorthanded without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), Ha-Seong Kim (finger) and Martin Perez (forearm), and Eli White is away on paternity leave. Pittsburgh's dealing with its own absences — Oneil Cruz and Spencer Horwitz are both still on the 10-day IL, and catcher Endy Rodriguez left Sunday's win with a hip issue that has him day-to-day. None of that has slowed Pittsburgh's bats behind Skenes lately, and the market's taken notice.
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ATL Braves
PIT Pirates
That offensive uptick for the Pirates is real — better lineup depth around Skenes has pushed his run support up noticeably from a year ago even as his own results have cratered. Atlanta, meanwhile, has been the definition of streaky: a 5-11 loss to the Cardinals, then a 14-3 blowout of the Mets, then back-to-back one-run losses to close that series. Whichever version of the Braves shows up matters against a Pittsburgh staff that isn't airtight either.
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
Recent form.
Waldrep's emergence is the more encouraging thread in Atlanta right now. Manager Walt Weiss has talked about feeling like the club has 6 legitimate starters again, and Waldrep's stuff has looked sharper outing to outing. Skenes, on the other hand, is dealing with diminished fastball velocity and got rocked for 7 earned runs in just 4 innings his last time out — the kind of line that raises real questions heading into Tuesday.
Atlanta Braves
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Pittsburgh Pirates
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Add it up and this looks like a game where Atlanta's rotation trend and Pittsburgh's shaky ace collide with two lineups that have both shown they can put up crooked numbers in a hurry.
