Barstool Bush
Predictions

Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates

By Bush StaffUpdated 43d ago·2 min read
Atlanta BravesATL(53-38)
Pittsburgh PiratesPIT(47-46)
10—5
FINAL
123456789RHE
ATL
10230000410111
PIT
002201000580

Bryce Elder and Mitch Keller both came in trying to shake off ugly stretches, and the mound matchup was the whole story of the series finale at 12:35 PM ET. Elder had been skipped a turn through the rotation after three straight rough starts, while Keller was buried in a 1-4 slide with his ERA ballooning over his last seven trips out. Neither pitcher was walking into this one with much margin for error.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Braves(53-38)
WLLLW
10
Pirates(47-46)
LWWWL
5
Best BetBraves -121
Postgame

The Braves cashed comfortably, winning 10-5 as Keller's late-season struggles caught up with him again.

Pregame

The Braves went off the board at -116 to win outright, a fair number for a team that had the better full-season record even while stumbling through a rough week. Elder had been shaky, but Keller's 7.50 ERA over his last seven starts made him the more obvious liability on the mound. Atlanta backing that price up with a 10-run day validates laying the number.

Both clubs are patchwork right now. Atlanta's rotation has been gutted by injuries all year, and Pittsburgh is missing its catcher and center fielder, so both lineups leaned on whoever was healthy enough to be in the box. That backdrop made the pitching matchup even shakier on paper, and it showed early as this one stayed close into the middle innings before it didn't.

Atlanta Braves
Bryce Elder
(6-6)·4.06 ERA
Jun 27 @ Giants
L
4.0IP
5ER
4K
1BB
69P
07/09 Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
Mitch Keller
(6-7)·4.90 ERA
Jul 3 @ Nationals
L
6.0IP
5ER
1K
0BB
83P
07/09 Lineup

This was the rubber match of a three-gamer that had already flipped once — Pittsburgh crushed Atlanta 12-4 in the opener, then the Braves answered with a shutout the next night. So the finale carried real stakes beyond the standings: nobody wanted to leave PNC Park having dropped the series.

Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
(53-38)
Jul 8W@ Pirates3-0
Jul 7L@ Pirates4-12
Jul 6Lvs Mets6-7
Jul 5Lvs Mets9-10
Jul 5Wvs Mets14-3
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(47-46)
Jul 8Lvs Braves0-3
Jul 7Wvs Braves12-4
Jul 5W@ Nationals11-5
Jul 4W@ Nationals7-1
Jul 3L@ Nationals5-9

Atlanta came in with the better overall record at 53-38 but had lost 3 of its last 5 heading into Thursday, a stretch that included a wild 9-10 loss to the Mets right after a 14-3 blowout win over the same team. Pittsburgh, sitting at 47-46, had actually won 3 of its last 5 before Thursday and looked like the hotter team on paper — until the Braves made that form irrelevant with a nine-spot to close it out.

Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
(12)
  • PaternityTyler Kinley (RP) — Atlanta placed Kinley on the paternity list Tuesday.07/07
  • 10-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr. (RF) — Manager Walt Weis said Tuesday that Acuna (hamstring) could begin a rehab assignment next week, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.07/07
  • 10-Day-ILHa-Seong Kim (SS) — Atlanta placed Kim on the 10-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to Wednesday, due to right middle finger inflammation.07/04
  • 15-Day-ILMartin Perez (SP) — Atlanta placed Perez on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a left forearm contusion.07/06
  • 15-Day-ILRobert Suarez (RP) — An MRI on Suarez's right elbow came back negative Friday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.06/27
  • suspensionJurickson Profar (LF) — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILAJ Smith-Shawver (SP) — Smith-Shawver (elbow) struck out five and allowed two hits and no walks over four scoreless innings in a rehab start Sunday with Single-A Augusta.07/08
  • 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach (SP) — Schwellenbach (elbow) will likely report to Atlanta's spring training facility in early July and could be a candidate to rejoin the major-league rotation by late August or early September, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.06/29
  • 60-Day-ILSpencer Strider (SP) — Atlanta transferred Strider (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.06/17
  • 60-Day-ILSean Murphy (C) — Murphy had the cast on his left hand removed Tuesday and is now wearing a splint to protect his fractured middle finger, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reprots.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Jimenez (RP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/13
  • 60-Day-ILJoey Wentz (RP) — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(7)
  • 10-Day-ILEndy Rodriguez (C) — Rodriguez (hip) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game versus Atlanta.07/08
  • 10-Day-ILSpencer Horwitz (1B) — Horwitz (hamstring) has begun a running program at the Pirates' spring training complex in Florida, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.07/07
  • 10-Day-ILOneil Cruz (CF) — Cruz (hand) has resumed swinging a bat, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.07/07
  • 10-Day-ILKonnor Griffin (SS) — The Pirates placed Griffin on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a torn tendon in his left ring finger, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.07/07
  • 15-Day-ILWilber Dotel (RP) — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Dotel (lat) will make another rehab appearance with a minor-league affiliate Tuesday, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.07/06
  • 15-Day-ILEvan Sisk (RP) — Sisk was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.07/04
  • 60-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.06/07

Both injury sheets are long and it's worth remembering how thin these rosters actually are. Atlanta is still without Ronald Acuna Jr. and has four starters on extended IL stints, while Pittsburgh is missing Endy Rodriguez, Oneil Cruz and now Konnor Griffin after his finger injury. That's a lot of name-brand talent sitting out for two teams that still played a 9-run, 19-hit game.

The line score tells the real story — this was tied or close for most of the afternoon before Atlanta blew it open with a 4-run ninth. Pittsburgh had actually clawed within a run or two multiple times, scoring in three of the first four frames, but the bullpen couldn't hold the door shut late. Atlanta finished with 11 hits and Keller's rough stretch continued in a game that started as a coin flip and ended as a rout.

Sources

MLBAtlanta BravesPittsburgh PiratesPolymarketKalshiBryce ElderMitch Keller