Atlanta at 36-18, Boston at 22-30. That tells you most of what you need to know about how Fenway is going to feel at first pitch. The Braves are cruising, the Red Sox are still trying to figure out who they are after firing Alex Cora and most of the hitting staff back in April.
Spencer Strider is the headliner. He missed the start of the year with an oblique, looked shaky in his May 3 debut at Coors, and has since rattled off a 3.00 ERA with a 27/12 K/BB across 4 starts. His last time out he punched out 9 Marlins over 6.1 innings. The stuff is back. The walks are still a thing, but you take it.
Ranger Suarez has been the lone bright spot in a Boston rotation that's lost Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval to the IL. A 2.40 ERA through 7 starts is exactly what Boston paid for last winter, and he's coming off the kind of stretch that includes 8 shutout innings against Detroit. The watch item: he got pulled on May 3 with right hamstring tightness, so the leg is worth monitoring.
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter RP — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
- 10-Day-ILDrake Baldwin C — Baldwin was diagnosed with a Grade 1 right oblique strain Tuesday, Daniel Alvarez-Montes of ElExtraBase.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILKyle Farmer DH — Farmer went 1-for-3 with a double, a run scored and two RBI in Sunday's rout of the Guardians.
- 10-Day-ILSean Murphy C — Manager Walk Weiss said Tuesday that Murphy (finger) is expected to be sidelined at least eight weeks, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- suspensionJurickson Profar LF — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILAJ Smith-Shawver SP — Manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Smith-Shawver (elbow) has been throwing bullpen sessions, and the next step in his rehab is to face live hitters, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- 60-Day-ILHurston Waldrep SP — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said May 13 that Waldrep (elbow) has felt fine since he began throwing bullpen sessions earlier in the month, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILJoe Jimenez RP — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris RP — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILTrevor Story SS — Story underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia Thursday and will be sidelined 6-10 weeks, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony LF — Red Sox president Sam Kennedy clarified Friday on WEEI 93.7 FM that Anthony is dealing with a sprained ligament on the base of his right ring finger, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet SP — Crochet (shoulder) will face hitters Tuesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 60-Day-ILRomy Gonzalez 1B — Gonzalez (shoulder) has started hitting flips, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILKutter Crawford SP — no
- 60-Day-ILTanner Houck SP — Houck (elbow) has been making throws out to 105 feet three days per week, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILTriston Casas 1B — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
The injury card is the story of Boston's season. Trevor Story just had sports hernia surgery and is out 6-10 weeks. Roman Anthony's finger ligament has him on ice. Triston Casas is still gone. The lineup the Sox roll out tonight is a shell of what they envisioned in March, and they're asking it to chase a Braves team that's basically been the best club in baseball for a month.
Pinnacle has the Braves at -112 as small road favorites with the total at 8. That feels about right — Strider vs. Suarez should keep runs down, and the market is essentially calling this a coin flip on the moneyline despite the 14-game gap in the standings. Translation: respect Suarez at Fenway, but the Braves are the better team and everyone knows it.