The Braves did Braves things Tuesday night — Michael Harris II went 4-for-4 with a homer, Matt Olson cracked another, and Raisel Iglesias slammed the door for save number 9 in a 7-6 escape job. Boston actually had the tying run on in the 9th after a Kiner-Falefa/Duran/Rafaela power barrage, but the rally died and the losing streak hit 4. Now they get the worst possible follow-up: Bryce Elder.
Elder is pitching like a Cy Young candidate. A 1.97 ERA, 6 innings of 1-run ball his last time out against Washington, and a Braves rotation that needs every bit of him with Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep all working back from elbow stuff on the 60-day. Connelly Early has been perfectly fine in his own right at 3.33, but "perfectly fine" against a lineup that just hung 7 isn't the matchup Boston was hoping for.
The injury report is where this thing really tilts. Garrett Crochet is still building back up on the shoulder, Trevor Story just had sports hernia surgery and is gone 6 to 10 weeks, and Roman Anthony is taking dry swings with a bad finger. Atlanta isn't exactly whole either — Sean Murphy is out at least 8 weeks with a finger issue, backup catcher Drake Baldwin is on the IL with an oblique, and Jurickson Profar is gone for the entire season on the PED suspension. But losing your ace, your shortstop and your top outfield prospect at the same time is a different kind of pain.
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter RP — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
- 10-Day-ILDrake Baldwin C — Baldwin (oblique) doesn't yet have a timeline for his return, MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILKyle Farmer DH — Farmer went 1-for-3 with a double, a run scored and two RBI in Sunday's rout of the Guardians.
- 10-Day-ILSean Murphy C — Manager Walk Weiss said Tuesday that Murphy (finger) is expected to be sidelined at least eight weeks, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- suspensionJurickson Profar LF — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach SP — Schwellenbach (elbow) has begun throwing on flat ground, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
- 60-Day-ILAJ Smith-Shawver SP — Manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Smith-Shawver (elbow) has been throwing bullpen sessions, and the next step in his rehab is to face live hitters, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- 60-Day-ILHurston Waldrep SP — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said May 13 that Waldrep (elbow) has felt fine since he began throwing bullpen sessions earlier in the month, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris RP — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony LF — Anthony (finger) took 12-to-15 dry swings without any discomfort Tuesday, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILTrevor Story SS — Story underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia Thursday and will be sidelined 6-10 weeks, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet SP — Crochet (shoulder) said that he's scheduled to throw a second live batting practice session Sunday, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
- 60-Day-ILRomy Gonzalez 1B — Gonzalez (shoulder) has started hitting flips, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILKutter Crawford SP — no
- 60-Day-ILTanner Houck SP — Houck (elbow) has been making throws out to 105 feet three days per week, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILTriston Casas 1B — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
The market sees this exactly how you'd expect. Atlanta is the moneyline favorite at Pinnacle and the public is piling onto the Braves -1.5 at DK (58% of bets, 46% of handle), which tells you sharps aren't laying the run-and-a-half at this number. The total sits at 8.5 with the under juiced to -115 — makes sense given Elder's form and a Fenway forecast that doesn't scream launch pad.
If you're a Red Sox fan, the path is obvious: get to Elder early, because once he settles in he's been giving up nothing, and the back-end of Atlanta's pen with Iglesias is sharp. If you're a Braves fan, you want Olson and Harris to keep raking and you want Elder to do what Elder has been doing all year. Hard to bet against the team that's 37-18 with the NL ERA leader on the mound. First pitch is 5:45 PM ET at Fenway.