First pitch is 12:40 PM CT at Great American Ball Park, and the Braves (40-19) are rolling into the getaway game with everything tilted their way. Strider (3-0, 3.46) draws Lodolo (1-1, 5.57) in a matchup the market clearly likes for Atlanta — they're a -132 favorite with the run line sitting at -1.5.
Atlanta has won 4 of 5 and just became the first team in baseball to 40 wins. Ronald Acuna Jr. homered in 3 straight games heading into this one, including a pair of solo shots Saturday, and Matt Olson is up to 16 bombs. The Reds, meanwhile, have dropped 3 in a row and have been outscored 13-5 in the first 2 games of this series.
Strider is the headliner but the line is honest about why — his last start in Boston was a grinder (5 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 3 BB, 87 pitches) and he's walked 15 in 26 innings on the year. The stuff is back, the command is still catching up. Against a Reds lineup that has scored 5 runs in 2 days, that's a problem he can probably outpitch.
Lodolo, on the other hand, was excellent his last time out against the Mets — 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 0 walks on 98 pitches. The issue is what surrounds that start: a 5.57 ERA and a Reds team that has been running out a backup-heavy roster. Cincinnati is still without Hunter Greene, Rhett Lowder, Jose Trevino, and Ke'Bryan Hayes, and the bullpen got thinner when Pierce Johnson landed on the 15-day IL this week.
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter RP — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
- 10-Day-ILDrake Baldwin C — Baldwin (oblique) doesn't yet have a timeline for his return, MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILKyle Farmer DH — Farmer went 1-for-3 with a double, a run scored and two RBI in Sunday's rout of the Guardians.
- 10-Day-ILSean Murphy C — Manager Walk Weiss said Tuesday that Murphy (finger) is expected to be sidelined at least eight weeks, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- suspensionJurickson Profar LF — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach SP — Schwellenbach (elbow) has begun throwing on flat ground, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
- 60-Day-ILAJ Smith-Shawver SP — Manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Smith-Shawver (elbow) has been throwing bullpen sessions, and the next step in his rehab is to face live hitters, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- 60-Day-ILHurston Waldrep SP — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said May 13 that Waldrep (elbow) has felt fine since he began throwing bullpen sessions earlier in the month, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayDane Myers CF — Myers went 1-for-4 with a solo home run during the Reds' 7-4 loss to the Guardians on Saturday.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C — no
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont RP — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILJose Trevino C — Trevino (hamstring) is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Friday, MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILKe'Bryan Hayes 3B — Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies.
- 15-Day-ILPierce Johnson RP — Johnson threw a scoreless seventh inning in Tuesday's win over the Phillies to pick up his fourth hold of the season. He struck out two while allowing a walk.
- 15-Day-ILRhett Lowder SP — Lowder (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville on Tuesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan (hamstring) is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Friday to check on his healing, MLB.com reports.
The total sits at 8.5 with the over juiced to -116, which feels about right for a midday game in a bandbox with one shaky starter. If you're betting Atlanta, the moneyline at -132 is the cleanest play — the -1.5 has paid both games but Strider's pitch count has been an adventure all year. Reds need a Lodolo gem and an early lead, otherwise this is a sweep waiting to happen.