Grant Holmes (4-2, 3.86) gets the ball for the Braves opposite Erick Fedde (1-5, 4.94), which on paper looks like a mismatch and on the betting board kind of is — Atlanta opened around -151 with the total set at 9.5. Holmes is coming off a quality 6-inning, 2-run start against Toronto. Fedde finally broke a winless drought that dated back to August 2025 by throwing 5 scoreless at Minnesota last week.
Here's the wrinkle that makes Fedde's night more interesting than his record: he was a Brave for a brief cameo last season, and his career numbers against Atlanta are gruesome — 0-6 with a 9.59 ERA in 12 appearances, with 16 homers allowed in barely 50 innings. The White Sox are betting on the version that shut down the Twins, not the version that has been a punching bag for this lineup.
The bigger story is just that the White Sox are 34-31 and this game means something. After losing 121 in 2024 and 102 last year, Will Venable has them in second place in the AL Central, two back of Cleveland, with a rotation led by Davis Martin, Sean Burke and Fedde that has overachieved every projection in the building. They've split their last 5 against Minnesota and Philly, but nobody on the South Side is complaining about a .523 ballclub in June.
Atlanta, meanwhile, is doing Atlanta things. The Braves have won 4 of their last 5 and just took a series off the Pirates at home. They're doing it without Sean Murphy, without Drake Baldwin behind the plate, without Jurickson Profar for the entire year (PED suspension), and with a rotation missing Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver. Michael Harris II is also day-to-day with a back issue and was out Sunday.
- Day-To-DayMichael Harris II CF — Harris (back) is not in Atlanta's lineup for Sunday's series finale versus Pittsburgh.
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter RP — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
- 10-Day-ILDrake Baldwin C — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Baldwin (oblique) could be activated from the 10-day injured list during the team's June 16-21 homestand, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILKyle Farmer DH — Farmer went 1-for-3 with a double, a run scored and two RBI in Sunday's rout of the Guardians.
- suspensionJurickson Profar LF — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILSean Murphy C — Murphy had the cast on his left hand removed Tuesday and is now wearing a splint to protect his fractured middle finger, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reprots.
- 60-Day-ILHurston Waldrep SP — Waldrep (elbow) allowed no hits and walked two batters over two scoreless innings during a rehab start Monday in the rookie-level Florida Complex League.
- 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach SP — Schwellenbach (elbow) has begun throwing on flat ground, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
- Day-To-DayMason Adams RP — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILEverson Pereira RF — Pereira (pectoral) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte on Friday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILMunetaka Murakami 1B — White Sox manager Will Venable said Monday that Murakami (hamstring) stayed back in Chicago during the team's road trip and was given a platelet-rich plasma injection, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILAustin Hays LF — Hays has been pulled off his rehab assignment at Triple-A Charlotte due to a recurrence of left calf soreness, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILNoah Schultz SP — White Sox manager Will Venable said Wednesday that Schultz (knee) remains sore and isn't ready to throw a bullpen session, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILJordan Hicks RP — Hicks was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with a right lat strain.
- 60-Day-ILKyle Teel C — Teel (hamstring) has begun hitting off a tee and doing catching drills, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILJordan Leasure RP — Leasure (forearm) said Friday that he will be shut down from throwing for four weeks, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
The pick here is whatever you want it to be — the number says Braves, the matchup history says Braves, but Fedde threw the ball well last time and the Sox have been one of the harder home teams to dismiss this year. If you're shopping, the over 9.5 at +106 isn't crazy with Fedde's homer problem against this lineup. Whatever you land on, this one tells you something about whether Chicago's run is real or running out of road.