TLDR: Milwaukee came from behind in both games at American Family Field and now needs 1 more win to finish San Diego. Game 3 of the NLDS moves to Petco Park on Tuesday, October 6, and for the Padres the season ends with a loss.
Milwaukee leads the best-of-five NLDS 2-0 after 2 one-run wins, the second on Jackson Chourio's walk-off single off Mason Miller. Game 3 moves to Petco Park with San Diego facing elimination. Dustin May has dominated the Padres this season and Nick Pivetta has been sharp since coming back from a 5-month injury. The game likely turns on whether May pitches deep enough to protect a short-handed Brewers staff.
−Buehler on paternity list, Andujar status unclear
Pat Murphy is giving Game 3 to Dustin May, and the season ERA isn't the reason. The 4.70 doesn't look like a postseason starter's number, but May has owned San Diego this year: 3 starts, 3 earned runs in 22 innings and a 22:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, with a 1-hit shutout in June among them. The Padres counter with Nick Pivetta, who missed 5 months with a flexor strain and has a 1.64 ERA since he came off the IL on September 7. Pivetta didn't face the Brewers at all this season.
Dustin May
(7-9)·4.70 ERA
Sep 26 vs Cardinals
ND
3.0IP
2ER
5K
1BB
58P
10/06 Lineup
Nick Pivetta
(3-2)·2.86 ERA
Sep 24 @ Dodgers
ND
4.2IP
0ER
7K
1BB
87P
10/06 Lineup
The Padres haven't lost these games by getting blown out. They've lost them late. In Game 2 they took the lead 3 separate times on just 5 hits, and Milwaukee answered every time. The last answer was Jackson Chourio's 2-out, bases-loaded single off Mason Miller in the 9th, with the Brewers down to their final strike. Miller had been sent out for a 6-out save and said afterward that he 'beat myself.' San Diego is also short a few bodies: Walker Buehler is on the paternity list, and Miguel Andujar was still on the IL with a wrist injury when he last took live at-bats at Petco. The board has San Diego as the home favorite anyway, which says more about Pivetta's September than about how the first 2 games went.
The Brewers won 103 games and have played like it all week. As of now they've won 5 straight, including both games of this series by a single run each, 3-2 and 4-3. That's the line worth reading. Milwaukee hasn't run away from the Padres. It has just been better in the last 3 innings both times, and that's not something a team can count on every night.
San Diego was rolling before this series started. The Padres swept the Cubs 2-0 at Petco, outscoring them 12-1, and won 3 in a row before the trip to Milwaukee. Now they're back home, where they looked like the better team at the end of September. The forecast is 84 degrees and clear with a light 6 mph wind. First pitch is 6:30 PM PT.
Most of Milwaukee's injuries are on the mound: Brandon Woodruff, Quinn Priester, Brian Fitzpatrick and Angel Zerpa are all on the 60-day IL. That's a big part of why the Game 3 ball went to a 7-9 starter whose last outing was 3 innings and 58 pitches against St. Louis. If May gives the Brewers what he gave them against San Diego all summer, they could be in the NLCS by Tuesday night. If he only gives them 3 innings again, the bullpen has to cover a lot of outs and Pivetta gets a chance to send this to Game 4.
NLDS Game 3: Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres — Padres Bring It Home to Petco, 1 Loss From Elimination | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush
