Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

By JR·2 min read
Brewers(103-59)
Padres(91-71)
Wednesday 10/077:00 PM

TLDR: Three games, three 1-run finishes, and Milwaukee is 1 win from the NLCS. The Padres are still alive after Game 3. Now they have to do it again at Petco Park with a bullpen that's held together with tape.

THU OCT 8, 7:00 PMFS1
LWWWW
WLLWW

Milwaukee leads the NLDS 2-1 heading into Game 4 in San Diego, and all 3 games have been decided by 1 run. The Padres won Game 3 without closer Mason Miller, who is on the paternity list, by using Game 2 starter Michael King for a 6-out save. That leaves their bullpen stretched, and neither team has named a starter. The 103-win Brewers have come back late all series and need 1 more win to reach the NLCS.

Milwaukee Brewers
  • Up 2-1, 1 win from the NLCS
  • Came back 3 times in Game 2, walked it off
  • Chourio delivered the series' biggest hit so far
  • Every game decided by 1 run, no margin
  • Woodruff still not cleared to pitch off a mound
  • Lost the 1 road game in the series
San Diego Padres
  • Tatis, Machado, Cronenworth all drove in runs in Game 3
  • King showed he can get 6 outs in relief
  • Back at Petco with the season on the line

Neither club has named a Game 4 starter, so the pitcher card will be blank for now and so will this paragraph. What we do know is how the first 3 went. Dustin May started Game 3 for Milwaukee. Nick Pivetta went 4⅓ innings for San Diego and gave up 2 runs. Then the Padres handed the ball to Michael King, who had started Game 2 two days earlier, and he got the last 6 outs for the save. San Diego got through Game 3 by stretching its arms as far as they go. Whoever starts Game 4 for the Padres has to get deep into it, because what's left behind him is thin.

The reason King was closing is the big story of this series. San Diego put Mason Miller on the postseason paternity list about 45 minutes before Game 3 because his wife had gone into labor, and nobody has given a timeline for when he'll be back. Lefty Adrian Morejon, also an All-Star, hadn't pitched since Game 1. Add Gavin Sheets, scratched from Game 3 with neck stiffness and listed day-to-day, and the Padres don't know who's in their lineup or bullpen with first pitch at 7:00 PM PT. The board isn't fully up yet either.

Milwaukee doesn't have those questions. The Brewers won 103 games and took both games at home the way good teams do in October. In Game 2, San Diego led 3 separate times on just 5 hits, and Milwaukee came back every time. The last comeback came down to its final strike, when Jackson Chourio lined a 2-run, 2-out single off Miller with the bases loaded to walk it off. The Brewers' problem is nothing has come easy. Both of their wins were by 1 run, and so was their loss.

10/06L@Padres3-4
10/04WvsPadres4-3
10/03WvsPadres3-2
09/27WvsCardinals6-4
09/26WvsCardinals3-2
10/06WvsBrewers4-3
10/04L@Brewers3-4
10/03L@Brewers2-3
09/30WvsCubs4-1
09/29WvsCubs8-0

The Padres showed in Game 3 what they need to do again. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado each drove in a run in the 2nd inning. Jake Cronenworth broke a 2-2 tie with a solo homer. Xander Bogaerts scored the 4th run on a broken-bat grounder that Milwaukee threw away. That's not a lineup running anybody over. It's a lineup that scrapes out 4 runs and needs the pitching to hold up. It did on Tuesday, but King can't throw 6 high-leverage outs every night.

Milwaukee's injured list is mostly old news. Brandon Woodruff is still waiting to get cleared to throw off a mound, and Quinn Priester and Angel Zerpa have been out for months. The Brewers have played this whole series without them. San Diego's list is the one that changed this week, with Miller and Sheets both new on it. It's 78 degrees and clear with barely any wind, so the weather won't help either side. If the Padres' starter goes 6 innings, this probably comes down to 1 run again. If he doesn't, Milwaukee gets to work against a bullpen that's running out of arms.

NLDS Game 4: Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres — Brewers Take Another Swing at Closing Out the Padres in San Diego | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush