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Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies

By JR·2 min read
Milwaukee BrewersMIL(99-59)
Philadelphia PhilliesPHI(87-71)
AT
6:05 PM ET

TLDR: Philadelphia still hasn't locked up its wild-card spot and has a 99-win Brewers team in town for the last game of the set. The first 2 games went one apiece, and Thursday's finale settles it.

THU SEP 24, 6:05 PM
Spread
WIN
Total
Brewers
(99-59)
WLWWW
Phillies
(87-71)
LWWLL

The Brewers (99-59) and Phillies (87-71) split the first 2 games, and Philadelphia still needs wins to lock up a wild-card spot. Andrew Painter has been much better over his last 10 starts than his season ERA suggests. Milwaukee is likely turning to Bryse Wilson, who is coming back from a back injury, so the game probably comes down to how many innings the Brewers' short-handed bullpen has to cover.

Brewers
  • 4-1 in the last 5, won Wednesday 4-1
  • Allowed 1 run in each of 3 of the last 4
  • Wilson 3.67 ERA in limited 2026 work
  • Wilson returning from back injury, may be short outing
  • Anderson, Zerpa, Fitzpatrick missing from the bullpen
  • Woodruff not yet cleared to throw off a mound
Phillies
  • Painter 3.88 ERA over his last 10 starts
  • Still playing for a wild-card clinch
  • Duran still the closer
  • Painter 3-10, 5.59 on the season
  • Bowlan (groin) out of the setup role
  • 2-3 in the last 5, scored 1 run Wednesday

Andrew Painter (3-10, 5.59) gets the ball for Philadelphia at 6:05 PM ET, and his season line looks worse than he has pitched lately. Since coming back from Triple-A on July 31 he has a 3.88 ERA over his last 10 starts, with 43 hits allowed in 55⅔ innings. The Phillies moved him up a day to keep him on regular rest, because they may want him for an inning of relief this weekend. He's being groomed for a bullpen job in October. Milwaukee counters with Bryse Wilson (0-0, 3.67), who spent part of this year in the Phillies' Triple-A system and has been on the injured list with a back problem. The Inquirer still called him only a possibility for Thursday as of Wednesday night.

Bryse Wilson
Bryse Wilson
—
2026 · No starts yet
ND
—IP
—ER
—K
—BB
—P
09/24 Lineup
Andrew Painter
Andrew Painter
(3-10)·5.59 ERA
Sep 19 @ Mets
L
5.1IP
4ER
7K
1BB
85P
09/24 Lineup

The Phillies' pitching staff is already being reshuffled for the playoffs. Jesus Luzardo (shoulder) played catch for a 4th straight day and could throw off a mound as soon as Thursday. He hasn't pitched since a 109-pitch complete game against Atlanta on September 7. Setup man Jonathan Bowlan is still working back from a groin strain, so more of the late-inning work falls to Jhoan Duran. Dave Dombrowski has already said some of his starters will end up in the bullpen for the wild-card round. None of that changes the favorite on the board: Philadelphia is a modest home favorite.

Philadelphia took the opener 6-4. Milwaukee answered by holding the Phillies to 1 run in a 4-1 win. That's how the Brewers have been winning all week. Before coming to Philadelphia they won 3 straight in Baltimore by scores of 6-5, 1-0 and 3-0. Nothing they've done lately has been a slugfest.

Milwaukee Brewers
(99-59)
09/23W@Phillies4-1
09/22L@Phillies4-6
09/20W@Orioles3-0
09/19W@Orioles1-0
09/18W@Orioles6-5
Philadelphia Phillies
(87-71)
09/23LvsBrewers1-4
09/22WvsBrewers6-4
09/20W@Mets7-2
09/19L@Mets3-10
09/18L@Mets3-6

Milwaukee has won 4 of its last 5 despite a bullpen that has been heavily picked over. Grant Anderson (biceps) and Wilson were both sent out on rehab assignments this month. Angel Zerpa and Brian Fitzpatrick are out on the 60-day list, and Brandon Woodruff (shoulder) won't be re-evaluated for mound work until the end of September. If Wilson comes out of a back injury on a short leash, the bullpen has to cover a lot of innings, and it's not at full strength.

Milwaukee Brewers
(6)
  • 15-Day-ILGrant Anderson (RP) — Anderson (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday.09/15
  • 15-Day-ILBryse Wilson (RP) — Wilson (back) will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday.09/15
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff (SP) — Woodruff (shoulder) has extended his flat-ground throwing to 105 feet, and his readiness for mound work will be re-evaluated at the end of September.09/15
  • 60-Day-ILBrian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week.07/05
  • 60-Day-ILQuinn Priester (SP) — Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months.06/18
  • 60-Day-ILAngel Zerpa (RP) — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/31
Philadelphia Phillies
(7)
  • Day-To-DayJonathan Bowlan (RP) — Bowlan was diagnosed with a mild right groin strain Friday.09/18
  • 15-Day-ILNewJesus Luzardo (SP) — Luzardo (shoulder) played catch Wednesday for the fourth day in a row and is expected to throw off a mound as soon as Thursday.09/23
  • 60-Day-ILCaleb Kilian (RP) — The Phillies transferred Kilian (oblique) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.09/17
  • 60-Day-ILFelix Reyes (LF) — The Phillies optioned Reyes to Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Monday.08/20
  • 60-Day-ILBrad Keller (RP) — Keller underwent right elbow UCL reconstruction surgery with internal brace and flexor tendon repair Tuesday.07/29
  • 60-Day-ILJohan Rojas (CF) — Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILAdolis Garcia (RF) — Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat.06/24

Philadelphia is 2-3 in its last 5 and lost Wednesday. Don Mattingly's approach going into that game was simple: "Just win tonight." It's 64 degrees and cloudy at Citizens Bank Park with an 11 mph wind. The most likely way this goes: Painter gives 5 solid innings, Wilson gives fewer, and the Phillies' lineup gets to Milwaukee's bullpen before Duran comes in.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies — Phillies Hand Painter the Ball in Brewers Series Finale | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush