Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays

Mon Oct 268:00 PM ETFoxSt. Petersburg, FL
By JR·2 min read
Brewers(103-59)
Rays(98-64)
Monday 10/268:00 PM

TLDR: Milwaukee has won the first 2 games of the World Series, and both were 1-run games. The series moves to St. Petersburg for Game 3 on Monday, October 26, and the Rays haven't scored since the 1st inning of Game 2.

TUE 10/27, 8:00 PMFox
WWWWW
(98-64)
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Milwaukee leads the World Series 2-0 after 2 1-run wins at home, and Game 3 moves to Tropicana Field with Robert Gasser facing his former teammate Freddy Peralta. The Rays have been held to 6 runs in 18 innings and will see their first left-handed starter of the series, while Milwaukee's bullpen keeps winning the late innings. With both starters coming off short outings and an off day resting both bullpens, the relievers should decide it again.

Milwaukee Brewers
  • Bullpen threw 6 scoreless innings in Game 2
  • Gasser: 3 ER in 11.2 postseason innings
  • Has won 5 straight, all close games
  • Gasser went just 72 pitches last start
  • Thin rotation: Priester out, Henderson chased early in Game 2
Tampa Bay Rays
  • Peralta has a 3.25 ERA since joining the Rays
  • Back home after the trip to Milwaukee
  • Jumped Henderson for 4 runs in Game 2's 1st
  • 6 runs in 18 innings this series
  • McClanahan out for the postseason
  • First lefty starter of the series for this lineup

Robert Gasser (5-5, 3.87) starts for Milwaukee against Freddy Peralta (10-11, 4.42), the guy who used to front the Brewers' rotation. Peralta's season went from Milwaukee to the Mets in an offseason trade, then to Tampa Bay at the deadline after a rough half-year in New York. Once he got to the Rays it turned around, with a 3.25 ERA and 7 wins in 13 starts. Now he faces the lineup that knows him best, with the series on the line.

Robert Gasser
Robert Gasser
(5-5)·3.87 ERA
Oct 14 @ Dodgers
ND
5.0IP
0ER
3K
1BB
72P
10/26 Lineup
Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta
(10-11)·4.42 ERA
Oct 19 vs Guardians
W
5.1IP
1ER
3K
3BB
84P
10/26 Lineup

Gasser is the bigger change for the Rays. He's the first left-handed starter Tampa Bay has seen in this series, and he's been steady all October: 3 earned runs over 11.2 postseason innings, including 5 scoreless against the Dodgers last time out on just 72 pitches. Kevin Cash's lineup runs Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Chandler Simpson and Junior Caminero at the top. Against a lefty, every one of them will be under the microscope. The market still has the home side a slight favorite, about what you'd expect for a team going home down 0-2.

The real problem for Tampa Bay is the offense. The Rays put 4 on Logan Henderson in the 1st inning of Game 2, capped by a 411-foot Liam Hicks homer, and then got nothing over the last 8 innings. Milwaukee's bullpen covered 6 scoreless innings behind Henderson. Sal Frelick tied it with a 6th-inning homer off Cam Booser, and Cooper Pratt's 7th-inning single scored Brice Turang to win it. Add the 3-2 Game 1 and that's 6 Tampa Bay runs in 18 innings.

10/24WvsRays5-4
10/23WvsRays3-2
10/15W@Dodgers6-4
10/14W@Dodgers6-2
10/12WvsDodgers7-4
10/24L@Brewers4-5
10/23L@Brewers2-3
10/19WvsGuardians7-3
10/18W@Guardians3-1
10/17W@Guardians7-3

Milwaukee has won 5 straight, 3 against the Dodgers and these 2 against the Rays, and none of them looked easy. That's the 103-win version of this team: lots of close games and a bullpen that keeps getting the ball late with a lead. Tampa Bay won 98 games and closed out Cleveland with 3 straight wins before the trip to Milwaukee. The Rays haven't played badly in this series. They've just come up 1 hit short twice.

Pitching depth is the other story. The Rays lost Shane McClanahan for the rest of the postseason with a forearm injury, and Ryan Pepiot has been out since his hip surgery in May. That's why Peralta, a midseason pickup, is starting a World Series game at the Trop. Milwaukee isn't at full strength either, with Quinn Priester, Brian Fitzpatrick and Angel Zerpa all on the 60-day IL. Its bullpen has covered for it all month anyway.

Sunday's off day means both bullpens should be rested for Monday. Neither starter went past 5.1 innings last time out, so expect the relievers to decide this one again. First pitch is 8:00 PM ET. Both franchises are still looking for their first title. Milwaukee's only other World Series trip was 1982, and Tampa Bay lost its 2 to the Phillies in 2008 and the Dodgers in 2020.

Brewers vs. Rays World Series Game 3: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Oct. 26) — Freddy Peralta Gets the Ball Against His Old Club in Game 3