Who is favored in Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays?

Milwaukee Brewers are favored on the moneyline.

Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays

By JR·2 min read

Brewers(103-59)

Rays(98-64)

Tuesday 10/278:00 PM

TLDR: Milwaukee is 1 win from the first championship in franchise history, and Tampa Bay has to win 4 straight to stop it. Game 4 of the World Series starts at 8:00 PM ET at Tropicana Field, and the Rays are out of room.

WED 10/28, WED OCT 28, 8:00 PM Fox

Brewers

(103-59)

WWWWW

Rays

(98-64)

LLLWW

Milwaukee leads the World Series 3-0 and can win the franchise's first championship with a Game 4 win at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay reportedly opens with reliever Griffin Jax and will need its bullpen early, after its offense scored once over the last 2-plus games. The Brewers have the better record and a 5-game win streak, and the Rays' rotation is down McClanahan and Pepiot.

Milwaukee Brewers

Won first 3 of series, outscoring Rays 18-7
Gasser's 6 innings saved Brewers' top relievers
Pitching has held Rays to 1 run since Game 2's 1st
No Game 4 starter named in latest reports
Fitzpatrick, Zerpa out of bullpen; Priester out of rotation
Games 1 and 2 were both decided by 1 run

Tampa Bay Rays

Facing elimination at home at the Trop
Kept the first 2 games to 1-run margins
Cash willing to go to the bullpen early

Game 3 was over by the 5th. Robert Gasser faced the minimum through 6 shutout innings, and an 8-run inning chased Freddy Peralta in his start against his old club. For Game 4, Kevin Cash is reportedly giving the ball to Griffin Jax, with the bullpen ready early. Cash wants 4 or 5 good innings from Jax and a lead when he leaves. Milwaukee had not named a starter as of the latest reports.

TBD

—

TBD

—IP

—ER

—K

—BB

—P

10/27 Lineup

Griffin Jax

(8-10)·3.53 ERA

Oct 15 @ Guardians

4.0IP

3ER

2BB

67P

10/27 Lineup

Getting through Jax's innings is the problem. Peralta left early in Game 3, so the Rays' relievers threw a lot of innings in a 10-1 loss. They now need the same group to cover a big chunk of an elimination game. Shane McClanahan is still ruled out for the rest of the postseason, and the rotation has already lost Ryan Pepiot for the year. That's why Tampa Bay is opening with a reliever on the biggest night of its season. DraftKings has the Brewers as road favorites, which is about what you'd expect for a 103-win team up 3-0.

The Rays' bats are the bigger worry. Since the 1st inning of Game 2, they've scored 1 run. They had 3 hits in Game 3. Game 1 and Game 2 were both 1-run games, so this club was right there for 2 nights. Then the offense stopped, and Milwaukee's pitching has given it nothing.

Milwaukee Brewers

(103-59)

10/26W@

Rays10-1

10/24Wvs

Rays5-4

10/23Wvs

Rays3-2

10/15W@

Dodgers6-4

10/14W@

Dodgers6-2

Tampa Bay Rays

(98-64)

10/26Lvs

Brewers1-10

10/24L@

Brewers4-5

10/23L@

Brewers2-3

10/19Wvs

Guardians7-3

10/18W@

Guardians3-1

Milwaukee has won 5 straight across 2 rounds. That includes the last 2 against the Dodgers, followed by the first 3 of this series. The Brewers win close and they win big, and they've been doing it all year: 103-59 in the regular season, the best record in this matchup. Tampa Bay came in hot after the last 2 games of its Cleveland series and has now lost 3 straight.

Both teams are missing arms. Milwaukee has Brian Fitzpatrick (Tommy John), Quinn Priester (thoracic outlet surgery) and Angel Zerpa (elbow) on the 60-day IL. The Rays' list is longer and hurts more right now. McClanahan's forearm took away a postseason starter, and that's the reason Game 4 starts with a reliever.

Only 1 team in postseason history has come back from 3-0 down. Tampa Bay needs to start with 9 good innings, plus innings from a bullpen it has been leaning on hard. Milwaukee needs 1 more win to finish off the Rays at their own park and win the first title in team history.

Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays

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