TLDR: Milwaukee was 1 out of position from popping champagne at Tropicana Field and instead watched Ben Williamson's bouncer land in right field in the 12th. The Brewers still lead the World Series 3-1, and they get to try to close it again at 8:00 PM ET in St. Petersburg.
Milwaukee leads the World Series 3-1 after Tampa Bay walked off a 4-3 win in 12 innings in Game 4, and the Brewers get a second chance to clinch at Tropicana Field. Neither team has named a Game 5 starter after both bullpens worked deep into extra innings, and the Rays are likely to run a bullpen game after using Nick Martinez in relief. The question is whether a Rays offense that has barely scored all series can keep pace with a Milwaukee staff anchored by Aaron Ashby's scoreless run.
−Martinez threw 33 pitches in relief, likely not starting
−Scored once from Game 2's 1st inning through Game 3
The pitching for Game 5 is the big unknown, because Game 4 went long enough to use up both plans. Dustin May started the potential clincher for Milwaukee on Tuesday, and Pat Murphy pulled him for JoJo Romero after a leadoff single. Griffin Jax gave Tampa Bay 4 innings of 2-run ball. Neither one is pitching tonight. The Rays haven't said who starts. Nick Martinez was the obvious pick, but Kevin Cash used him for 2 scoreless innings and 33 pitches in relief to keep the season going, so Tampa Bay looks headed for a bullpen game after using 5 of its top arms in Game 4.
Jacob Misiorowski
(16-5)·1.80 ERA
Oct 23 vs Rays
W
5.0IP
1ER
3K
1BB
78P
10/28 Lineup
TBD
—
TBD
ND
—IP
—ER
—K
—BB
—P
10/28 Lineup
The Rays won Game 4 the way they've lost most of this series, by barely hitting. They had scored once from the 1st inning of Game 2 through the end of Game 3, when Robert Gasser faced the minimum through 6 and Milwaukee won 10-1. On Tuesday Cooper Pratt hit a solo homer in the top of the 12th to put the Brewers up 3-2. Then Jonny DeLuca singled in the tying run, Chandler Simpson loaded the bases, and Williamson, pinch-hitting, scored pinch-runner Nick Fortes. The bullpen made the comeback possible: Tampa Bay's relievers threw 7 scoreless innings behind Jax. Milwaukee is still a road favorite, and it's hard to argue with that.
Here's what's at stake. The Brewers won 103 games and are 1 win from the first championship in franchise history. They've already won Games 1 and 2 by a single run, and they won Game 3 by 9. Tampa Bay has to win 3 straight against a team that hasn't lost twice in a row this October. All of it rides on a Rays pitching staff that just covered 12 innings and can't name a starter.
Milwaukee's bullpen is still its biggest edge. Aaron Ashby stretched his postseason scoreless streak to 18 relief innings in Game 4, and the Brewers took a 3-2 lead into the bottom of the 12th even though May was gone almost immediately. The catch is that Murphy also had to cover nearly a full extra-inning game in relief, so both managers are working with tired bullpens tonight. The Brewers are also without Quinn Priester, Angel Zerpa and Brian Fitzpatrick, all out for the year, which makes their depth thinner than it looks.
Tampa Bay's injury list is the reason it had to empty the bullpen. Shane McClanahan is out for the rest of the postseason with a forearm problem and Ryan Pepiot's season ended with hip surgery in May, so the Rays can't count on a single starter to give them length. They need to cover 27 outs with whatever relievers are left and get more than 1 big inning out of a lineup that has mostly been shut down this series. Milwaukee just needs to keep doing what has worked for 3 games.
Brewers vs. Rays World Series Game 5: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Oct. 28) — Brewers Take Another Swing at a Title After Rays Escape in 12
