Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds

Sat Sep 56:40 PM ET
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Milwaukee's steamrolling toward a division title. Cincinnati's just trying to spoil somebody's night before the season ends — and Saturday, that somebody might be the Brewers.

FINAL · SAT SEP 5, 10:40 PM
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MIL
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CIN
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Milwaukee Brewers
  • Running away with the NL Central race
  • Yelich, Contreras, Chourio all hot at once
  • September activations added bullpen and bench depth
  • May getting hit hard, even in a clean outing
  • Rotation shuffling with Drohan nearing an innings cap
Cincinnati Reds
  • Ashcraft and Lodolo both back off the injured list
  • Sal Stewart emerging as a real rookie standout
  • Mathematically buried, effectively playing out the string
  • Abbott's whiff rate has collapsed from last season
  • De La Cruz playing through a quad strain

Dustin May (6-9, 4.69 ERA) takes the ball for Milwaukee at 6:40 PM ET, still shaking off a scare from his last turn — a 106 mph comebacker off his back on August 26 that thankfully came back clean on X-rays. He returned August 30 against Texas and got hit hard again, with 5 of the 6 hits he allowed going for extra bases. Cincinnati counters with Andrew Abbott (6-10, 4.49), stuck in the roughest patch of his season.

Dustin May
Dustin May
(7-9)·4.61 ERA
Aug 30 vs Rangers
L
4.1IP
4ER
4K
3BB
97P
09/05 Lineup
Andrew Abbott
Andrew Abbott
(6-11)·4.70 ERA
Aug 29 @ Cubs
L
3.0IP
7ER
1K
2BB
68P
09/05 Lineup

Abbott's stuff has quietly cratered — his four-seam whiff rate has dropped from 19.9% last year to 8.2% this season, and hitters are slugging .431 off the pitch that used to be his best weapon. Cincinnati's lineup isn't at full strength either. Elly De La Cruz is playing through a quad strain and sticking to DH duty for now, though Graham Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo are both back off the injured list to help shore up the pitching staff.

None of that changes the math much for a Reds team playing out the string. Milwaukee's already got the better of this set head-to-head, and with a division crown well within reach, Cincinnati's goal down the stretch is simpler: play spoiler and see what the kids can do.

Milwaukee's lineup is humming right on schedule for a stretch run. Christian Yelich has reached base in 7 of his last 8 games with 3 doubles mixed in, and William Contreras strung together a stretch batting .350 with a .600 slugging mark. Throw rookie Jackson Chourio into that group and Pat Murphy's got as deep a top of the order as anyone in the league.

09/04W@Reds10-7
09/03L@Cubs1-2
09/02W@Cubs9-5
09/01W@Cubs9-4
08/31L@Cubs3-17
09/04LvsBrewers7-10
09/02WvsPadres7-3
09/01WvsPadres4-3
08/31LvsPadres0-5
08/30W@Cubs7-5

The bigger question for Milwaukee is workload, not production. Brandon Drohan is already pushing a career high in innings, which is part of why the Brewers are sticking with a 6-man rotation for at least one more turn before easing him into relief. Bo Naylor and JoJo Romero both got activated with the September roster expansion, giving Murphy fresh pieces to lean on as games start to matter more.

Cincinnati isn't without a bright spot — Sal Stewart has looked like a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate since his call-up — but with the Reds mathematically buried and the Brewers chasing a division title, Saturday reads about like the records suggest: one team playing for October, the other auditioning for next year.

Brewers 3, Reds 5: Final Score & Odds Recap — Brewers Bring Division-Leading Bats Into Reds' Home Turf