The Brewers are humming. A 5-1 homestand that included a sweep of the Yankees has them at 24-17 with a run differential that dwarfs anyone else in this matchup. The Twins, at 20-24, have quietly also won 4 of 5, so this isn't quite the mismatch the records suggest.
The pitching matchup is where it gets interesting. Joe Ryan is the proven guy here — 3.43 ERA, 45 punchouts in 44.2 innings, and the small detail that he left his last start in the first inning with elbow soreness before an MRI came back clean. He's going. That's worth monitoring pitch-to-pitch.
Milwaukee counters with Coleman Crow, who has been bouncing between Nashville and the big-league rotation. He's the 27th-ranked Brewers prospect, sports a 3.38 ERA in his limited MLB work, and is essentially a bullpen game with a starter's label. The Brewers can get away with this because their pen ranks 7th in MLB by ERA. The Twins' pen ranks 29th. Whoever blinks first in the middle innings probably loses this.
- Day-To-DayChristian Yelich DH — Yelich (back) remains out of the lineup for Friday's game in Minnesota.
- Day-To-DayJacob Misiorowski SP — Misiorowski left his start Wednesday against the Padres due to quad cramping, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- Day-To-DayGerson Garabito RP — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- Day-To-DayJ.B. Bukauskas RP — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge LF — Lockridge is expected to be sidelined until mid-to-late June after an MRI on his right knee showed a bone bruise, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 15-Day-ILJared Koenig RP — Koenig (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 15-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff SP — Woodruff (shoulder) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Thursday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILQuinn Priester SP — Priester (shoulder) will resume a rehab assignment this weekend, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- Day-To-DayTrevor Larnach LF — Larnach is not in the starting lineup for Friday's game against the Brewers.
- Day-To-DayByron Buxton CF — Buxton (hip) is not in the starting lineup for Friday's game against the Brewers.
- Day-To-DayCory Lewis SP — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather RP — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino SP — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins CF — Jenkins was diagnosed Monday with a Grade 2 AC joint sprain in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated in 10 days, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILTaj Bradley SP — Bradley (4-1) earned the win Tuesday against the Nationals, allowing two runs on four hits and two walks while striking out eight over six innings.
- 15-Day-ILCody Laweryson RP — The Twins placed Laweryson (forearm) on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to Thursday.
The injury news is loud on both sides. Christian Yelich is out again with a back issue, and Jacob Misiorowski is dinged up after the quad cramping that pulled him from his last start. Minnesota is missing Byron Buxton and Trevor Larnach from the lineup card tonight, which is a real lineup tax against a Brewers staff that has been pitching well even before the hot week.
The market has this as a coinflip — both moneylines sitting at -104 on Pinnacle, total parked at 8.5 with the over juiced. No edge worth chasing on the EV column. The cleanest read is probably the under if you trust that Crow gets pulled early enough to hand things to the better bullpen before the lineup figures him out. Otherwise, this is a pass-and-watch.