Milwaukee at 30-20, St. Louis at 29-22, one game separating the top of the NL Central — this is the matchup the schedule-makers dreamed about. The Brewers send Jacob Misiorowski to the mound on Sunday afternoon and the Cardinals counter with Matthew Liberatore. On paper that's a mismatch. In practice, somehow, it's even worse.
Misiorowski is in the middle of one of the most absurd Mays a starter has ever put together. Per MLB.com, he's gone 24 1/3 innings this month without surrendering a run, struck out 37, and is the only pitcher in the modern era with a 4-start stretch of 30+ Ks, zero runs, and zero extra-base hits allowed. His last time out he punched out 8 Cubs over 6 scoreless. He also leads the NL with 88 strikeouts on the season.
Liberatore isn't a slouch — the 4.70 ERA is loud but his May has been quietly solid, with a 3.78 mark this month against lineups like the Dodgers and Padres, per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The problem is he's likely going to need to throw a shutout to keep pace, and the Cardinals are doing it without Lars Nootbaar (60-day IL, targeting June 1) and Ramon Urias. That's a lot to ask against a guy walking 5 hitters a month.
- Day-To-DayPacky Naughton RP — Naughton will undergo surgery next month to repair the damaged UCL in his left elbow, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- Day-To-DaySem Robberse SP — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- Day-To-DayVictor Santos RP — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
- Day-To-DayIxan Henderson SP — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
- Day-To-DayZack Thompson RP — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
- 10-Day-ILNathan Church LF — Church (lower body) is expected to be placed on the 10-day injured list Friday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
- 10-Day-ILRamon Urias 3B — Urias (elbow) will begin taking dry swings this week, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- 60-Day-ILLars Nootbaar LF — The Cardinals are eyeing June 1 as a target date for Nootbaar's (heels) activation from the 60-day injured list, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- Day-To-DayGerson Garabito RP — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge LF — Lockridge is expected to be sidelined until mid-to-late June after an MRI on his right knee showed a bone bruise, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 15-Day-ILQuinn Priester SP — Priester (shoulder) was charged with five earned runs on five hits and three walks over three innings in a rehab start with Triple-A Nashville on Thursday.
- 15-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff SP — Woodruff (shoulder) is tentatively scheduled to face hitters Friday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILJared Koenig RP — Koenig (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 15-Day-ILAngel Zerpa RP — Zerpa will undergo UCL reconstruction on his left elbow next week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 60-Day-ILRob Zastryzny RP — Zastryzny (shoulder/ribs) will resume a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
The market sees it the way you'd expect. Milwaukee is a chunky -212 home favorite, with a 1.5 run line that's basically a coin flip at -111/+101 because nobody trusts the Cardinals' offense to do anything if Misiorowski is in the game. The total sits at 7.5, leaning slightly to the under — also reasonable when one side's starter has a sub-2.00 ERA.
The one thing keeping this from being a total formality is Misiorowski's body. Per Athlon Sports, he's cramped up in 2 of 3 May starts, and Pat Murphy has had to manage him with that in mind. If the Cards can stretch his pitch count and grind into the Brewers' bullpen — which is missing Jared Koenig and Angel Zerpa — there's a path. If not, this one's going to feel over by the 4th inning.