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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

By JR·2 min read
St. Louis CardinalsSTL(77-83)
Milwaukee BrewersMIL(101-59)
AT
6:10 PM CT

TLDR: Milwaukee has already clinched everything the regular season can give it, and St. Louis has already been eliminated. What's left on Saturday is whether the Brewers' No. 3 playoff starter can get right against the club that traded him.

SAT SEP 26, 6:10 PM
Spread
WIN
Total
Cardinals
(77-83)
LLWLW
Brewers
(101-59)
WWWLW

Milwaukee has clinched the NL's No. 1 seed and St. Louis is eliminated, so the game matters mostly for Dustin May. He's lined up as the Brewers' Game 3 playoff starter but has failed to reach 5 innings in 6 of his last 7 starts, and Saturday is his last chance to get right against the team that traded him. Quinn Mathews has been steady for the Cardinals. How deep May pitches and how many regulars the Brewers rest will decide it.

Cardinals
  • Mathews went 7 innings in his last start
  • Facing May, struggling badly over his last 7 starts
  • Brewers have nothing left to play for
  • Jordan, Baez and Pereira all out
  • Lost 2 straight, including the 8-4 series opener
  • Scored 1 run or fewer twice in Pittsburgh
Brewers
  • Won 3 straight, including the series opener
  • Took 2 of 3 in Philadelphia this week
  • Deep roster even with regulars resting
  • May: 7.84 ERA over his last 7 starts
  • No. 1 seed clinched, likely resting regulars
  • Ortiz and Pratt day-to-day, Vaughn on IL

Quinn Mathews (2-3, 3.65) goes against Dustin May (7-9, 4.67) at 6:10 PM CT, and these 2 starters are heading in opposite directions. Mathews has turned into a reliable piece of the Cardinals rotation. Outside of one ugly night in Philadelphia he has handled his starts, and he went 7 innings his last time out against Washington. May has been the Brewers' biggest late-season worry. He has failed to get through 5 innings in 6 of his last 7 starts, with a 7.84 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over that stretch, and his last outing against the Phillies ended after 2 innings and 36 pitches.

Quinn Mathews
Quinn Mathews
(2-3)·3.65 ERA
Sep 20 vs Nationals
ND
7.0IP
3ER
3K
2BB
96P
09/26 Lineup
Dustin May
Dustin May
(7-9)·4.67 ERA
Sep 22 @ Phillies
ND
2.0IP
2ER
2K
2BB
36P
09/26 Lineup

There's a revenge angle too. St. Louis sent May and JoJo Romero to Milwaukee at the deadline, and he once took a no-hitter into the 8th against the Brewers and still lost. Now he's pitching for them with a playoff job on the line. Milwaukee wants him locked in as the Game 3 starter, and Saturday is his last chance to show he's ready before it matters. The Cardinals will be short-handed around him: Blaze Jordan is done for the year, and Joshua Baez and Everson Pereira are both on the IL. The Brewers are the heavy favorite, which is how the board usually treats a 101-win team at home against a club 6 games under .500.

The standings don't matter here. Milwaukee has the NL's No. 1 seed, the first-round bye and home field all the way through, and it keeps the top seed even if it loses all 3 games this weekend. The 101 wins are already a franchise record. St. Louis is out and headed for back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 1958-59. For the Brewers this weekend is a tune-up for October, not a race.

St. Louis Cardinals
(77-83)
09/25L@Brewers4-8
09/24L@Pirates1-2
09/23W@Pirates5-1
09/22L@Pirates0-2
09/20WvsNationals5-3
Milwaukee Brewers
(101-59)
09/25WvsCardinals8-4
09/24W@Phillies5-1
09/23W@Phillies4-1
09/22L@Phillies4-6
09/20W@Orioles3-0

On the field, the Brewers have won 3 straight, including an 8-4 win over the Cardinals in the series opener, and they took 2 of 3 in Philadelphia before coming home. The Cardinals have lost 2 straight and took just 1 of 3 in Pittsburgh, scoring 1 run or fewer in 2 of those games. The only real question for St. Louis is whether Mathews can end the year on a good note.

St. Louis Cardinals
(5)
  • 10-Day-ILBlaze Jordan (3B) — Jordan (ankle) will not play again this season.09/19
  • 10-Day-ILJoshua Baez (LF) — The Cardinals placed Baez on the 10-day injured list Friday with a left oblique strain.09/18
  • 10-Day-ILEverson Pereira (RF) — Pereira (hand) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Memphis on Thursday, going 1-for-3 with an RBI single along with two walks.09/18
  • 15-Day-ILHunter Dobbins (SP) — Dobbins underwent reconstructive surgery on his right elbow Wednesday and is expected to require a 12-month recovery.09/04
  • 60-Day-ILMax Rajcic (RP) — Rajcic revealed on his Instagram account Thursday that he recently underwent a right elbow UCL reconstruction.07/23
Milwaukee Brewers
(8)
  • Day-To-DayNewJoey Ortiz (SS) — Ortiz (abdomen) will start at shortstop and bat sixth in Wednesday's game versus the Phillies.09/26
  • Day-To-DayNewCooper Pratt (SS) — Pratt is absent from the lineup for Wednesday's tilt in Philadelphia.09/25
  • 10-Day-ILNewAndrew Vaughn (1B) — Vaughn is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Cubs.09/25
  • 15-Day-ILGrant Anderson (RP) — Anderson (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday.09/15
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff (SP) — Woodruff (shoulder) has extended his flat-ground throwing to 105 feet, and his readiness for mound work will be re-evaluated at the end of September.09/15
  • 60-Day-ILBrian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week.07/05
  • 60-Day-ILQuinn Priester (SP) — Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months.06/18
  • 60-Day-ILAngel Zerpa (RP) — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/31

The Milwaukee injury list is worth a look before first pitch. Joey Ortiz and Cooper Pratt are both day-to-day at shortstop, and Andrew Vaughn is on the IL at first base. With the seed already locked, nobody banged up has a reason to play. After Saturday, Jacob Misiorowski gets the finale on Sunday, likely his last start of a Cy Young-caliber season. Saturday belongs to May: 5 clean innings would count as a win for Milwaukee no matter what the scoreboard says.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers — Dustin May Faces His Old Team With October on His Mind | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush