St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
STL	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	4	7	2
CHC	2	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	—	6	7	0

First pitch went at 1:30 PM CT with Javier Assad on the bump for Chicago and Matthew Liberatore starting for St. Louis, and the Cubs badly needed length from their guy. Assad had been juggling starts and relief outings all year, and Sunday was a test of whether he could give Chicago innings instead of just outs.

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FINAL

Spread

ML

Total

Cardinals(47-39)

WWWLW

4

+1.5-167+133o8.5+113

Cubs(49-40)

LLWWW

6

-1.5+163-133u8.5-113

Best BetCubs -156

Postgame

The Cubs winning outright cashes this one — Assad and the offense got it done, exactly the pitching-and-power case we made.

Pregame

We backed the Cubs at -147 before first pitch, and the price has since settled in around -133 as the market cooled slightly on Chicago. That's still fair value for a team at home with the better overall record, even with a patchwork pitching staff. St. Louis came in with real momentum after hammering the Cubs the first two games, but that kind of offensive surge doesn't guarantee a third straight beatdown.

The bigger story walking into this one was the state of the Cubs' pitching staff. Chicago is without Jameson Taillon and Edward Cabrera from the rotation and has burned through relievers like Ben Brown, Ethan Roberts, Daniel Palencia, Phil Maton and Hoby Milner to injury, so every start Assad can stretch out matters more than it would for a healthy staff. Add Matt Shaw sitting out in right field and the lineup was already down a piece before the Cardinals even touched a bat.

Matthew Liberatore

(5-6)·5.00 ERA

Jun 30 @ Braves

W

5.0IP

1ER

9K

4BB

98P

07/05 Lineup

Javier Assad

(6-1)·4.11 ERA

Jun 24 @ Mets

W

5.0IP

3ER

5K

2BB

83P

07/05 Lineup

St. Louis showed up having outscored Chicago 20-1 across the first two games of this set, a stretch that included a 17-1 blowout and a 3-0 shutout behind a red-hot lineup. The Cubs had also dropped their last two before Sunday, so this was a genuine gut-check spot for a team that entered the weekend playing well.

St. Louis Cardinals

(47-39)

Jul 5W@ Cubs3-0

Jul 3W@ Cubs17-1

Jul 2W@ Braves11-5

Jul 1L@ Braves1-5

Jun 30W@ Braves5-3

Chicago Cubs

(49-40)

Jul 5Lvs Cardinals0-3

Jul 3Lvs Cardinals1-17

Jul 1Wvs Padres23-3

Jul 1Wvs Padres9-7

Jun 30Wvs Padres3-2

Chicago actually jumped out in front early and carried a 2-0 lead into the middle innings behind Assad, who's been sharper as a starter than out of the bullpen this season. St. Louis flipped the script with a 3-run 6th to grab the lead, riding the same offense that had steamrolled the Cubs all series. Chicago answered immediately, putting up 4 of its own in the bottom of the 6th to seize control for good.

St. Louis Cardinals

(1)

• 60-Day-ILRamon Urias (3B) — Urias (elbow) returned to St. Louis to undergo an examination on his left elbow, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.06/12

Chicago Cubs

(15)

• 10-Day-ILMatt Shaw (RF) — Shaw (hand) won't be activated from the injured list until after the All-Star break, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.07/04
• 15-Day-ILEdward Cabrera (SP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Wednesday that the goal is for Cabrera (hamstring) to be throwing bullpen sessions before the All-Star break, Casey Drottar of MLB.com reports.07/01
• 15-Day-ILJameson Taillon (SP) — Taillon (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Iowa on Sunday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.07/01
• 15-Day-ILEthan Roberts (RP) — The Cubs placed Roberts on the 15-day injured list Monday due to right forearm inflammation.06/29
• 15-Day-ILDaniel Palencia (RP) — Palencia (elbow) is progressing in his rehab from elbow tendinitis, but he won't be activated from the injured list until after the All-Star break, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.06/28
• 15-Day-ILHoby Milner (RP) — Milner (abdomen) will be sidelined 4-to-6 weeks after undergoing emergency appendectomy surgery on Friday, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.06/27
• 15-Day-ILPhil Maton (RP) — The Cubs placed Maton (knee) on the 15-day injured list Friday with a right knee injury, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.06/26
• 15-Day-ILBen Brown (RP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Thursday that Brown has been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his neck and will have limited activity for the next month, 104.3 The Score reports.06/25
• 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP) — The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports.06/22
• 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP) — Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said Tuesday in a radio appearance that he doesn't expect Steele (elbow) to rejoin the major-league rotation this season, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.06/23
• 60-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP) — The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/17
• 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP) — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
• 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP) — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
• 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP) — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
• 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B) — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08

The Cardinals got one back in the 8th to make it interesting, but it wasn't enough. Liberatore, who'd been dominant in his last outing against Atlanta, couldn't keep the Cubs' bats quiet a second time in the series, and Chicago's bullpen — thin as it is — did just enough to close it out.

It's a single game in a long season, but for a Cubs club sitting a game up on St. Louis in the standings, avoiding the sweep matters. For the Cardinals, it's a reminder that even a lineup rolling like theirs can get outlasted when the other dugout finally gets length from its rotation.