This is a classic May matchup of two contending NL teams playing better than the casino expected. The Cardinals have built a 23-15 mark on the back of a deep rotation and a road lineup that travels, while the 22-16 Padres are punching through a brutal injury list and still hanging in the division race. San Diego is the home favorite, but the gap between these clubs is razor thin.
The pitching matchup is the whole story. Randy Vásquez has been the surprise stabilizer of a Padres rotation that has lost Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, German Marquez and Nick Pivetta. He came into May with a sub-2.00 ERA and the Padres have won all five of his starts. The 3.20 ERA on the card is actually a tick conservative — his underlying stuff, including a four-seamer up to 94.8 mph, has been even better than the line.
Dustin May is the wild card. His season ERA of 5.15 is ugly, but it's been front-loaded by an awful first month — over his last three starts before facing the Dodgers, he ran a 1.56 ERA with a 13-to-2 K/BB. Then the Dodgers tagged him for the loss in his first start against his old team last Sunday. Which version shows up at Petco matters more than anything else here.
The injury report is doing a lot of heavy lifting for the Padres' price. Beyond the rotation wreckage, Jake Cronenworth is on the concussion IL, Luis Campusano has a fractured toe and Blake Hunt is shut down with an oblique. That's most of an infield-and-catcher group sidelined, and it's a big reason the lineup has been streaky behind Bogaerts and Machado. The Cardinals are healthier where it counts, and Lars Nootbaar is reportedly close to a rehab assignment.
- Day-To-DaySem Robberse SP — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- Day-To-DayVictor Santos RP — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
- Day-To-DayIxan Henderson SP — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
- Day-To-DayPacky Naughton RP — Imaging revealed damage to the UCL in Naughton's left elbow Saturday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
- Day-To-DayZack Thompson RP — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
- 10-Day-ILRamon Urias 3B — The Cardinals placed Urias on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with right elbow lateral epicondylitis.
- 15-Day-ILMatt Pushard RP — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Saturday that Pushard (knee) will need "several more" rehab appearances at Triple-A Memphis before being activated from the 10-day injured list, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- 60-Day-ILLars Nootbaar LF — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Saturday that Nootbaar (heels) is on track to begin a rehab assignment as soon as the week of May 10, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- Day-To-DayBlake Hunt C — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 7-day ilJake Cronenworth 2B — The Padres placed Cronenworth on the 7-day concussion injured list Tuesday, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano C — The Padres placed Campusano on the 10-day injured list Thursday due to a left toe fracture.
- 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez SP — The Padres placed Marquez on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to right forearm nerve irritation.
- 15-Day-ILNick Pivetta SP — Padres manager Craig Stammen told reporters Wednesday that Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 60-Day-ILJhony Brito RP — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
- 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove SP — The Padres transferred Musgrove (elbow) to the 60-day injured list on Thursday.
- 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing RP — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
The number to circle is the total at 8. Petco plays as a pitcher's park, Vásquez has been suffocating right-handed bats, and even bad-Dustin May tends to rack up grounders rather than crooked-number innings. The market split on the over/under is right down the middle, which feels about right — but if you trust the Vásquez breakout is real, the under is the cleaner side of this game.