Leahy is the more interesting story here. He's 4-3 with a 4.93 but he's factored into the decision in all 7 of his starts as a converted reliever, and his last two outings followed the exact same script: cruise through 5, then the third time through the order bites him. Against a Padres lineup that has scuffled offensively all year, getting him to that 6th-inning wall is the whole ballgame for San Diego.
Buehler, meanwhile, is still searching. He punched out 5 over 5.1 against the Giants in his last start, which counts as a step in the right direction after back-to-back losses to the Rockies and Cubs where he barely got through 7.1 combined innings. The velo is fine. The results aren't. At 2-2 with a 5.64, the Padres need length more than dominance, especially with Pivetta, Marquez, Musgrove, and Darvish all on the shelf.
- Day-To-DaySem Robberse (SP) — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayVictor Santos (RP) — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayIxan Henderson (SP) — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.05/08
- Day-To-DayPacky Naughton (RP) — Imaging revealed damage to the UCL in Naughton's left elbow Saturday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayZack Thompson (RP) — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.05/08
- 10-Day-ILRamon Urias (3B) — The Cardinals placed Urias on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with right elbow lateral epicondylitis.05/08
- 15-Day-ILMatt Pushard (RP) — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Saturday that Pushard (knee) will need "several more" rehab appearances at Triple-A Memphis before being activated from the 10-day injured list, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILLars Nootbaar (LF) — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Saturday that Nootbaar (heels) is on track to begin a rehab assignment as soon as the week of May 10, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayBlake Hunt (C) — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.05/08
- 7-day ilJake Cronenworth (2B) — The Padres placed Cronenworth on the 7-day concussion injured list Tuesday, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano (C) — The Padres placed Campusano on the 10-day injured list Thursday due to a left toe fracture.05/08
- 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez (SP) — The Padres placed Marquez on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to right forearm nerve irritation.05/08
- 15-Day-ILNick Pivetta (SP) — Padres manager Craig Stammen told reporters Wednesday that Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.05/08
- OutYu Darvish (SP) — The Padres placed Darvish (elbow) on the restricted list Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJhony Brito (RP) — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove (SP) — The Padres transferred Musgrove (elbow) to the 60-day injured list on Thursday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing (RP) — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
The market sees this as a coin flip leaning Padres. San Diego is the home favorite at -128 on Pinnacle, and the model likes it — the only ticket showing positive EV on the board is the Padres moneyline. Sharp money agrees; 61% of the DK handle is on San Diego despite the bet count being roughly even. The total sits at 8 with juice to the over, which feels generous for two staffs running ERAs near 5.
One thing worth tracking: Lars Nootbaar is reportedly on track to begin a rehab assignment as soon as this week, which would be a real shot in the arm for a Cardinals outfield that's already overachieving. He won't be in this lineup, but the next homestand might look different. For today, take the unders on Leahy's pitch count and the overs on whoever the Padres run out in the 6th.