The Reds side of this matchup is where things get rough. Chris Paddack is 0-5 with a 7.07 ERA and is only on the mound because Cincinnati's rotation has been gutted. He was a Marlins DFA before the Reds scooped him up mid-May, and his first Cincy start was a 6-hit, 2-run outing against Cleveland that looked more like surviving than thriving. The home run rate (1.76 HR/9 before he got here) does not pair well with Great American Ball Park.
- Day-To-DayNathan Church (LF) — Church (lower body) is expected to be placed on the 10-day injured list Friday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.05/22
- Day-To-DayPacky Naughton (RP) — Naughton will undergo surgery next month to repair the damaged UCL in his left elbow, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.05/14
- Day-To-DaySem Robberse (SP) — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayVictor Santos (RP) — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayIxan Henderson (SP) — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.05/08
- Day-To-DayZack Thompson (RP) — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.05/08
- 10-Day-ILRamon Urias (3B) — Urias (elbow) will begin taking dry swings this week, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.05/21
- 60-Day-ILLars Nootbaar (LF) — The Cardinals are eyeing June 1 as a target date for Nootbaar's (heels) activation from the 60-day injured list, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.05/21
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns (C) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont (RP) — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez (3B) — Suarez (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/18
- 10-Day-ILJose Trevino (C) — Trevino is expected to miss 3-to-4 weeks after being diagnosed with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/18
- 15-Day-ILRhett Lowder (SP) — Lowder (shoulder) is expected to face hitters early next week, Charlie Goldsmith of of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/21
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan (RP) — Pagan (hamstring) is throwing from his knees in order to keep throwing while not putting stress on his strained hamstring, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox19.com reports.05/20
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson (RP) — Ferguson (oblique) walked one over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.05/10
- OutCarson Spiers (SP) — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Greene (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session May 26, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/14
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
The injury board explains a lot. Hunter Greene is on the 60-day, Rhett Lowder just hit the 15-day with a shoulder issue, and Brandon Williamson is buried on the 60-day too. That's the entire reason Paddack is being handed the ball tonight. The Cardinals aren't fully healthy either — Lars Nootbaar is targeting June 1, Ramon Urias is still rehabbing the elbow — but their problems are bench depth, not the rotation.
The market sees a coin flip and that's the part that's genuinely interesting. Cincy is a tiny home favorite at -109 despite trotting out a guy with a 7-plus ERA against a Cardinals club playing fine baseball. Either Pinnacle thinks Paddack's underlying stuff is better than the line score, or it's pricing in Leahy being a converted reliever who hasn't gone deep into games. A 9.5 total feels like the bookmakers splitting the difference.
If you're picking a side, the path is pretty clean: Cardinals lineup gets to Paddack early, Leahy hands a lead to a Cardinals bullpen that's been the steadier unit. The risk is the Reds offense at home pounding a starter still stretching out into a true workhorse role. First inning is going to tell you a lot.