St. Louis is 28-21 and Cincinnati is 26-24, but the gap on the mound tonight feels bigger than the standings suggest. Leahy has quietly become a useful piece of the Cardinals rotation, posting a 3.94 ERA and a 5-3 record after converting from the bullpen this spring. He's allowed just two runs across 16.1 May innings entering this one.
The Reds side of this matchup is where things get rough. Chris Paddack is 0-5 with a 7.07 ERA and is only on the mound because Cincinnati's rotation has been gutted. He was a Marlins DFA before the Reds scooped him up mid-May, and his first Cincy start was a 6-hit, 2-run outing against Cleveland that looked more like surviving than thriving. The home run rate (1.76 HR/9 before he got here) does not pair well with Great American Ball Park.
- Day-To-DayNathan Church LF — Church (lower body) is expected to be placed on the 10-day injured list Friday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
- Day-To-DayPacky Naughton RP — Naughton will undergo surgery next month to repair the damaged UCL in his left elbow, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- Day-To-DaySem Robberse SP — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- Day-To-DayVictor Santos RP — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
- Day-To-DayIxan Henderson SP — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
- Day-To-DayZack Thompson RP — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
- 10-Day-ILRamon Urias 3B — Urias (elbow) will begin taking dry swings this week, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- 60-Day-ILLars Nootbaar LF — The Cardinals are eyeing June 1 as a target date for Nootbaar's (heels) activation from the 60-day injured list, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C — no
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont RP — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez 3B — Suarez (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 10-Day-ILJose Trevino C — Trevino is expected to miss 3-to-4 weeks after being diagnosed with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILRhett Lowder SP — Lowder (shoulder) is expected to face hitters early next week, Charlie Goldsmith of of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan (hamstring) is throwing from his knees in order to keep throwing while not putting stress on his strained hamstring, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox19.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson RP — Ferguson (oblique) walked one over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene SP — Greene (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session May 26, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
The injury board explains a lot. Hunter Greene is on the 60-day, Rhett Lowder just hit the 15-day with a shoulder issue, and Brandon Williamson is buried on the 60-day too. That's the entire reason Paddack is being handed the ball tonight. The Cardinals aren't fully healthy either — Lars Nootbaar is targeting June 1, Ramon Urias is still rehabbing the elbow — but their problems are bench depth, not the rotation.
The market sees a coin flip and that's the part that's genuinely interesting. Cincy is a tiny home favorite at -109 despite trotting out a guy with a 7-plus ERA against a Cardinals club playing fine baseball. Either Pinnacle thinks Paddack's underlying stuff is better than the line score, or it's pricing in Leahy being a converted reliever who hasn't gone deep into games. A 9.5 total feels like the bookmakers splitting the difference.
If you're picking a side, the path is pretty clean: Cardinals lineup gets to Paddack early, Leahy hands a lead to a Cardinals bullpen that's been the steadier unit. The risk is the Reds offense at home pounding a starter still stretching out into a true workhorse role. First inning is going to tell you a lot.