The Cardinals (29-22) roll into Cincinnati on the back end of the set looking to grab a series win. The Reds (27-25) just took 2 in Philly and are quietly playing their best stretch in weeks. First pitch is 12:40 PM local.
The pitching matchup is the whole ballgame. Brady Singer is currently sporting a 6.26 ERA, and the deeper number is uglier — 14 homers allowed in 46 innings, which is a wild jump from the 19 he gave up across 169.2 frames last season. Doing that at Great American Ball Park is the baseball equivalent of juggling knives in a wind tunnel. Matthew Liberatore counters at 4.70 but has been better than the topline suggests, posting a 3.78 ERA in May while holding up against the Dodgers and Padres.
The market knows the rotation gap. Cincinnati opened a slight ML favorite at -114 with Pinnacle's fair price at -109, and the total sits at 10 — which feels generous until you remember Singer is giving up a homer every 3.3 innings. The DK ticket-vs-handle split tells the usual story: public is hammering the Reds and the under, sharper money is on the over and the Cards.
The Reds rotation is a MASH unit. Hunter Greene is still on the 60-day with the elbow, Rhett Lowder is working back from a shoulder issue, and Brandon Williamson got moved to the 60-day. That's why Singer keeps getting the ball through a slump — there's nobody behind him. St. Louis has its own holes too, most notably Lars Nootbaar still targeting a June 1 return from the heel injury.
- Day-To-DayPacky Naughton RP — Naughton will undergo surgery next month to repair the damaged UCL in his left elbow, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- Day-To-DaySem Robberse SP — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- Day-To-DayVictor Santos RP — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
- Day-To-DayIxan Henderson SP — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
- Day-To-DayZack Thompson RP — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
- 10-Day-ILNathan Church LF — Church (lower body) is expected to be placed on the 10-day injured list Friday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
- 10-Day-ILRamon Urias 3B — Urias (elbow) will begin taking dry swings this week, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- 60-Day-ILLars Nootbaar LF — The Cardinals are eyeing June 1 as a target date for Nootbaar's (heels) activation from the 60-day injured list, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C — no
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont RP — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILKe'Bryan Hayes 3B — Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies.
- 10-Day-ILJose Trevino C — Trevino is expected to miss 3-to-4 weeks after being diagnosed with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILRhett Lowder SP — Lowder (shoulder) is expected to face hitters early next week, Charlie Goldsmith of of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan (hamstring) is throwing from his knees in order to keep throwing while not putting stress on his strained hamstring, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox19.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene SP — Greene (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session May 26, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson SP — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
On the position-player side, Elly De La Cruz is the engine — .290/.356/.525 entering the weekend — and Sal Stewart has chipped in 12 homers and 34 RBI. If Singer keeps the ball in the park for 5 innings and lets that lineup go to work, Cincinnati wins this getaway game. If he doesn't, this turns into a track meet fast.
Lean: Liberatore over Singer in a park that punishes mistakes is the obvious read, and the number agrees. The Cards have been the steadier club all month — Sunday's the day to pick on a struggling starter, not back him.