Chicago dropped game 1 on Tuesday 5-2 and now sits a game back of Atlanta for the top mark in the National League. The Cubs have lost 3 of their last 5 after ripping off a hot stretch, and the Braves have flipped the script the other way — back-to-back-to-back wins after their own 2-game skid.
This is the matchup the Cubs wanted. Imanaga is in the middle of an absurd run — a 2.28 ERA across 47.1 innings, 0.93 WHIP, and two double-digit strikeout games already after posting zero of those in 2025. His last time out he punched out 10 Reds over 6 innings and the splitter has been borderline unhittable. If you're going to steal a road game in Truist Park, you do it with the guy who's been the best pitcher in your rotation.
On the other side is JR Ritchie, Atlanta's No. 2 prospect getting one of his first big-league looks. He owns a 3.63 ERA through his early starts and is 1-0, but the sample is tiny and the Cubs lineup hasn't seen him. The Braves are doing this by committee out of necessity — Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep are all on the shelf with elbow stuff, which is why a rookie is starting a game between two first-place teams in mid-May.
- Day-To-DayBrandon Birdsell RP — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.
- Day-To-DayJeff Brigham RP — Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports.
- Day-To-DayJaxon Wiggins SP — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Wiggins was placed on Triple-A Iowa's 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right elbow inflammation, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.
- 15-Day-ILHunter Harvey RP — Harvey was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right triceps Friday, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports.
- 15-Day-ILJordan Wicks RP — Wicks (elbow) struck out two batters and allowed one hit and one walk over three scoreless innings Saturday in a rehab start for Triple-A Iowa.
- 15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd SP — Boyd underwent a successful menisectomy Thursday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
- 15-Day-ILRiley Martin RP — Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar RP — The Cubs placed Thielbar on the 15-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain.
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter RP — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
- 7-day ilEli White CF — White was placed in concussion protocol following Sunday's victory over the Dodgers, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr. RF — Manager Walt Weiss indicated Tuesday that Acuna (hamstring) is progressing well in his recovery from a hamstring strain but isn't likely to be reinstated from the IL when first eligible Wednesday, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- 10-Day-ILSean Murphy C — Manager Walk Weiss said Tuesday that Murphy (finger) is expected to be sidelined at least eight weeks, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- 15-Day-ILHurston Waldrep SP — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Waldrep (elbow) will throw a bullpen session in about a week and could be ready to rejoin the team in June, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- suspensionJurickson Profar LF — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILDylan Dodd RP — Dodd (back) is expected to begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Gwinnett in the coming days, Lindsay Crosby of BravesToday.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach SP — Schwellenbach (elbow) received a positive update when evaluated last week and is expected to start a throwing program soon, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
Atlanta's injury list is the real story underneath all of this. No Ronald Acuna Jr., no Sean Murphy (8 weeks minimum with the finger), no Jurickson Profar (full-year PED suspension), and Eli White is now in concussion protocol. That the Braves are 29-13 anyway tells you what Matt Olson and the rotation behind Ritchie have been doing. The Cubs bullpen is no picnic either — Hunter Harvey just hit the IL with a triceps stress reaction, joining Steele, Boyd, Hodge, Thielbar and a half-dozen others.
The market sees this as close to a coin flip. Pinnacle has the Cubs at -132 on the moneyline with Atlanta at +122, and the total sits at 8.5 with a slight lean to the over. DraftKings money is split — 61% of moneyline handle is on Chicago, but 57% of bet count is on Atlanta, which is the usual public-vs-sharp tug-of-war. EV is negative on every side, so there's no free lunch here.
Bottom line — if Imanaga gives the Cubs 6-plus, Chicago should be in this. If he doesn't, a bullpen missing this many arms against a lineup that just put up 5 last night is a problem. Get the splitter going early and let the rookie blink first.