This is the matchup the Cubs wanted. Imanaga is in the middle of an absurd run — a 2.28 ERA across 47.1 innings, 0.93 WHIP, and two double-digit strikeout games already after posting zero of those in 2025. His last time out he punched out 10 Reds over 6 innings and the splitter has been borderline unhittable. If you're going to steal a road game in Truist Park, you do it with the guy who's been the best pitcher in your rotation.
On the other side is JR Ritchie, Atlanta's No. 2 prospect getting one of his first big-league looks. He owns a 3.63 ERA through his early starts and is 1-0, but the sample is tiny and the Cubs lineup hasn't seen him. The Braves are doing this by committee out of necessity — Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep are all on the shelf with elbow stuff, which is why a rookie is starting a game between two first-place teams in mid-May.
- Day-To-DayBrandon Birdsell (RP) — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJeff Brigham (RP) — Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJaxon Wiggins (SP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Wiggins was placed on Triple-A Iowa's 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right elbow inflammation, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP) — Harvey was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right triceps Friday, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILJordan Wicks (RP) — Wicks (elbow) struck out two batters and allowed one hit and one walk over three scoreless innings Saturday in a rehab start for Triple-A Iowa.05/08
- 15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd (SP) — Boyd underwent a successful menisectomy Thursday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP) — Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar (RP) — The Cubs placed Thielbar on the 15-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP) — Manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Steele's (elbow) setback will keep him sidelined until after the All-Star break, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP) — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP) — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP) — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B) — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter (RP) — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
- 7-day ilEli White (CF) — White was placed in concussion protocol following Sunday's victory over the Dodgers, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.05/11
- 10-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr. (RF) — Manager Walt Weiss indicated Tuesday that Acuna (hamstring) is progressing well in his recovery from a hamstring strain but isn't likely to be reinstated from the IL when first eligible Wednesday, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/12
- 10-Day-ILSean Murphy (C) — Manager Walk Weiss said Tuesday that Murphy (finger) is expected to be sidelined at least eight weeks, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILHurston Waldrep (SP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Waldrep (elbow) will throw a bullpen session in about a week and could be ready to rejoin the team in June, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILDylan Dodd (RP) — Dodd (back) is expected to begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Gwinnett in the coming days, Lindsay Crosby of BravesToday.com reports.05/08
- suspensionJurickson Profar (LF) — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach (SP) — Schwellenbach (elbow) received a positive update when evaluated last week and is expected to start a throwing program soon, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.05/12
- 60-Day-ILDanny Young (RP) — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILAJ Smith-Shawver (SP) — Atlanta placed Smith-Shawver (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJoe Jimenez (RP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJoey Wentz (RP) — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
Atlanta's injury list is the real story underneath all of this. No Ronald Acuna Jr., no Sean Murphy (8 weeks minimum with the finger), no Jurickson Profar (full-year PED suspension), and Eli White is now in concussion protocol. That the Braves are 29-13 anyway tells you what Matt Olson and the rotation behind Ritchie have been doing. The Cubs bullpen is no picnic either — Hunter Harvey just hit the IL with a triceps stress reaction, joining Steele, Boyd, Hodge, Thielbar and a half-dozen others.
The market sees this as close to a coin flip. Pinnacle has the Cubs at -132 on the moneyline with Atlanta at +122, and the total sits at 8.5 with a slight lean to the over. DraftKings money is split — 61% of moneyline handle is on Chicago, but 57% of bet count is on Atlanta, which is the usual public-vs-sharp tug-of-war. EV is negative on every side, so there's no free lunch here.
Bottom line — if Imanaga gives the Cubs 6-plus, Chicago should be in this. If he doesn't, a bullpen missing this many arms against a lineup that just put up 5 last night is a problem. Get the splitter going early and let the rookie blink first.