Barstool Bush
Predictions

Chicago Cubs at New York Mets

By Bush StaffUpdated 58d ago·2 min read
Chicago CubsCHC(43-37)
New York MetsNYM(34-46)
4—3
FINAL
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CHC
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NYM
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Matthew Boyd gets the ball at 7:10 PM ET for Chicago — activated off the 15-day IL specifically for this start after missing more than 7 weeks with knee and shoulder problems. His last big-league outing was May 3 against Arizona: 6 innings, 2 earned, 5 strikeouts. He walks straight into a series the Cubs have already commandeered. Freddy Peralta counters for New York, and after what he just did against Philadelphia, the Mets are hoping his short memory holds.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Cubs(43-37)
WWWPP
4
Mets(34-46)
LLLPL
3
Best BetCubs -109
Pregame

The market has this dead even at -104 on both sides — essentially a coin flip. That pricing ignores where these two teams actually are. The Cubs have won 3 straight in this series by a combined 15 runs, Peralta is coming off the worst start of his career, and Soto is likely sitting again. Chicago being this cheap is a function of the market not fully adjusting to a 43-37 team that is actively dismantling a 34-46 opponent.

Boyd's return is the bigger storyline heading into Thursday. He was Chicago's Opening Day starter, and this Cubs rotation has been hit hard — Justin Steele is done for the season with an elbow injury, Jameson Taillon is out until after the All-Star break, and now Cabrera just landed on the IL Wednesday with a moderate hamstring strain. Boyd's availability matters beyond this single game. He dealt with two separate injury setbacks in 2026 (the knee surgery, then shoulder soreness during rehab), and Craig Counsell needs to see him hold up for more than a few innings before anyone relaxes.

Chicago Cubs
Matthew Boyd
(4-1)·4.31 ERA
May 3 vs Diamondbacks
W
6.0IP
2ER
5K
1BB
94P
06/25 Lineup
New York Mets
Freddy Peralta
(5-7)·4.68 ERA
Jun 20 @ Phillies
L
2.2IP
10ER
2K
1BB
80P
06/25 Lineup
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(43-37)
Jun 24W@ Mets10-5
Jun 24W@ Mets10-3
Jun 23W@ Mets9-6
Jun 22P@ Mets0-0
Jun 21Pvs Blue Jays0-0
New York Mets
New York Mets
(34-46)
Jun 24Lvs Cubs5-10
Jun 24Lvs Cubs3-10
Jun 23Lvs Cubs6-9
Jun 22Pvs Cubs0-0
Jun 21L@ Phillies2-6

The Cubs offense is not waiting to see how Boyd feels. Pete Crow-Armstrong is in the middle of one of the best stretches by a Cub in recent memory — hitting .410 with 11 home runs in his last 24 games, leading all position players in baseball with 4.8 WAR. Dansby Swanson set a Cubs franchise record Wednesday with 11 RBI across the doubleheader, surpassing Ron Santo's mark from 1970, and has 15 RBI total in the first 3 games of this series. That is a lineup operating at a different level than anything Peralta has seen lately. Peralta gave up a career-high 10 earned runs in 2.2 innings against Philadelphia on June 20, and has posted a 7.47 ERA over his last 6 starts. The $100 million Mets investment is drawing trade-deadline speculation by the day.

Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(14)
  • Day-To-DayJaxon Wiggins (SP) — The Cubs announced Wednesday that Wiggins (elbow) has resumed throwing bullpen sessions and facing hitters at the organization's complex in Arizona and could soon be ready to pitch in games, MLB.com reports.06/13
  • Day-To-DayBrandon Birdsell (RP) — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
  • 15-Day-ILEdward Cabrera (SP) — Cabrera was diagnosed with a moderate-grade left hamstring strain Wednesday following an MRI and is without a return timeline, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.06/24
  • 15-Day-ILBen Brown (RP) — Brown returned to Chicago to have his neck strain examined by specialists, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.06/24
  • 15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd (SP) — Boyd (shoulder/knee) will be activated from the 15-day injured list to start Thursday's game against the Mets, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.06/24
  • 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP) — The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports.06/22
  • 15-Day-ILDaniel Palencia (RP) — Palencia was diagnosed with a mild flexor strain in his right arm Saturday, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports.06/20
  • 15-Day-ILJameson Taillon (SP) — Taillon (hamstring) is expected to be sidelined until after the All-Star break, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.06/09
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP) — Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said Tuesday in a radio appearance that he doesn't expect Steele (elbow) to rejoin the major-league rotation this season, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.06/23
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP) — The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/17
  • 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP) — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP) — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP) — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B) — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
New York Mets
New York Mets
(19)
  • Day-To-DayJuan Soto (LF) — Soto (back) is out of the lineup for the second game of Wednesday's doubleheader versus the Cubs.06/24
  • Day-To-DayChristian Arroyo (2B) — The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday.06/17
  • Day-To-DayRyan Lambert (RP) — Triple-A Syracuse placed Lambert on the 7-day injured list June 4 due to an unspecified injury.06/16
  • Day-To-DayMike Baumann (RP) — Baumann signed a minor-league deal with the Mets on Wednesday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.06/15
  • Day-To-DayBrandon Waddell (RP) — Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.06/01
  • Day-To-DayMike Tauchman (RF) — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.05/18
  • Day-To-DayJoe Jacques (RP) — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayKevin Herget (RP) — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayJose Rojas (3B) — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILTyrone Taylor (CF) — Taylor (hip) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Binghamton on Friday, Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News reports.06/18
  • 15-Day-ILChristian Scott (SP) — Manager Carlos Mendoza said Tuesday that Scott (hip) is expected to be reinstated from the 15-day injured list to start this weekend against the Phillies, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports.06/23
  • OutRobert Stock (RP) — Stock (shoulder) said Sunday that he'll require surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome and could be sidelined for the remainder of the season, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILLuis Robert Jr. (CF) — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Robert "looked normal" while taking a full session of batting practice in the cages Tuesday, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports.06/23
  • 60-Day-ILJorge Polanco (1B) — An MRI on Polanco's left ankle/Achilles tendon came back negative Tuesday, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports.06/15
  • 60-Day-ILClay Holmes (SP) — The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.05/19
  • 60-Day-ILReed Garrett (RP) — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILDedniel Nunez (RP) — The Mets placed Nunez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Hagenman (RP) — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTylor Megill (SP) — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08

Juan Soto's back is the other question hanging over this game. He sat out both ends of Wednesday's doubleheader and an IL stint hasn't been ruled out. Without Soto and with Luis Robert Jr. already on the 60-day IL, New York's lineup loses its most dangerous component. The Mets are 12 games under .500 — the conversation around this club has already shifted from contention to what pieces they move in July. Chicago came to New York with a purpose and executed in all 3 games. Boyd's durability is a real concern, but this Cubs offense has proven it can carry a shaky outing through sheer volume.

Sources

MLBChicago CubsNew York MetsPolymarketKalshiMatthew BoydFreddy Peralta