Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles

David Peterson (4-7, 6.61 ERA) gets the ball for Chicago against Trevor Rogers (6-7, 4.53 ERA) in an early-afternoon getaway-day finale, first pitch 1:35 PM ET. Peterson's been a disaster since Chicago acquired him from the Mets, and his last time out was the worst of it — 3.2 innings, 10 earned runs against the Cardinals. Rogers is going the other direction entirely, and that split shows up all over this pitching matchup.

Both rotations are running thin. The Cubs are without Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Edward Cabrera, which is a big part of why a struggling depth piece like Peterson is even in the rotation right now. Baltimore's issue is worse in relief — Felix Bautista, Ryan Helsley and Keegan Akin are all out with elbow trouble, and manager Craig Albernaz has said the closer job is completely up for grabs. That's the kind of shorthanded bullpen picture that makes for a live, unpredictable price on the total.

None of that stopped the Cubs from grabbing the first two games of this series, 5-2 and 9-7, arriving in Baltimore looking like the far more dangerous club. Chicago is 52-40 and was riding a modest winning streak into the finale. Baltimore, at 42-51, had lost 3 straight before Thursday and entered as the clear underdog on paper.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	9	0
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	—	3	3	2

The game played out like a microcosm of both teams' seasons. Chicago out-hit Baltimore 9-3 and looked like the sharper club for most of the afternoon, building a 2-1 edge into the 8th. But the Orioles turned 2 errors and a couple of timely swings into a 2-run 8th that flipped the score to 3-2, and their beat-up bullpen made it stand up. It's the kind of ugly, low-hit win that sell-mode teams occasionally sneak out against clubs that should be pulling away.

Both front offices have real decisions to make with the trade deadline approaching. Chicago's front office is reportedly looking for bullpen help to patch a pitching staff stretched by three IL starters, while Baltimore GM Mike Elias has talked about "going for it" even as his roster bleeds arms and reports link the O's to shopping prospects. A game like this — sloppy, low-scoring, decided on a couple of bounces — is exactly why that decision isn't easy for either side.

Rogers remains the most interesting storyline walking out of Camden Yards. He's turned himself from replacement-level into arguably Baltimore's most valuable trade chip over the last six weeks, and every clean outing raises the stakes on what the Orioles do with him before the deadline. For the Cubs, the Peterson experiment needs to turn around fast, or Chicago will be searching the same market Baltimore might be selling into.

Sources