The offenses are heading in opposite directions. San Diego finished 91-71, and that includes 2 straight wins at Dodger Stadium, then 10 and 9 runs in the last 2 games against Arizona. Manny Machado hit a 3-run homer in the 10-7 win that locked up the No. 4 seed. Chicago finished 89-73 and scored 2, 2, 3 and 0 runs across a 4-game stretch before an 6-2 win in Boston on the last weekend of the season. The Cubs got in, but they didn't arrive hot.
The bigger problem for Chicago is the bullpen list. Shelby Miller, Ben Brown, Phil Maton, Riley Martin, Hunter Harvey and Porter Hodge are all on the 60-day IL, and Trent Thornton is on the 15-day. Justin Steele and Cade Horton are also out of the rotation for good. In a short series where managers go to the bullpen early, the Cubs have fewer options than anyone would want in October. San Diego isn't at full strength either. Casey Mize went on the IL after giving up 7 runs in 4 innings to Arizona, Joe Musgrove and Lucas Giolito are still out, and Miguel Andujar was only up to live at-bats last week.
The forecast is 74 degrees, clear skies and a 4 mph breeze at Petco, a normal fall night in a park that doesn't help hitters. In a best-of-three, Game 1 matters more than usual. If King pitches like he did before the Dodgers start and Chicago's opener is anyone but the in-form Peterson, the Padres have the clearer path. If the Cubs name Peterson and he keeps rolling, this is a coin flip at the ballpark.