Who is favored in Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres?

San Diego Padres are favored on the moneyline.

Who is predicted to win Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres?

Our pick is San Diego Padres. Gausman's shoulder is the biggest unknown on the field, and the Padres' price still treats him as the playoff arm from last October, not the one who allowed 10 earned runs over his last 3 starts. Any early sign he's laboring should push San Diego shorter before first pitch.

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres

By JR·2 min read

CHC(89-73)

SD(91-71)

Wednesday 09/307:00 PM

TLDR: Game 1 was an 8-0 beatdown, and now the Cubs are 1 loss from going home. Chicago needs one win at Petco Park to force a Game 3, and it has to come against a Padres team that just made it look easy.

THU OCT 1, 7:00 PM

Cubs

(89-73)

LWLLW

Padres

(91-71)

WWWLW

The Padres took the opener 8-0 behind 3 homers and King's no-hit bid, so the Cubs face elimination in Game 2 at Petco Park. Chicago's season rides on Kevin Gausman, a proven playoff starter pitching through a left shoulder injury after a rough final month, against Nick Pivetta, who is effective but only 5 games back from elbow trouble. The game turns on whether Gausman holds up and whether a Cubs offense that managed 3 hits can get to San Diego's bullpen.

Chicago Cubs

Gausman's 2.93 ERA in last year's postseason
Pivetta likely short, exposes Padres' bullpen early
Elimination spot lets Counsell use every arm
Gausman's left shoulder hurt, 10 ER last 3 starts
Just 3 hits in the Game 1 shutout
Bullpen missing Hodge, Brown, Maton, Martin, Harvey

San Diego Padres

Pivetta 2.86 ERA, 4.2 scoreless at Dodgers last out
Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts all homered in the opener
Bullpen rested after King went deep in Game 1
Pivetta only 5th game back from elbow injury
Andujar, Laureano, Rengifo out of the lineup

Kevin Gausman (9-12, 4.51) gets the ball with the season on the line, and nobody is sure what's under the hood. He hurt his left shoulder, the non-throwing one, making a diving tag in the last week of the regular season. His own read on it was, "We're going to find out." His form was already sliding before that. He had a 4.83 ERA in 9 starts after coming over at the deadline and gave up 10 earned runs over his final 3. The Cubs are betting on his résumé: 14 career playoff games and a 2.93 ERA for Toronto on last fall's World Series run. Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86) goes for San Diego.

Kevin Gausman

(9-12)·4.51 ERA

Sep 23 vs Marlins

5.2IP

2ER

1BB

101P

09/30 Lineup

Nick Pivetta

(3-2)·2.86 ERA

Sep 24 @ Dodgers

4.2IP

0ER

1BB

87P

09/30 Lineup

Pivetta is the wild card in this one. Tonight is only his 5th game back from nearly 5 months out with a right elbow injury. His last time out was 4.2 scoreless innings and 7 strikeouts at Dodger Stadium, which is sharp but short. Expect a quick hook, so Chicago's hitters could be facing Mike Shildt's bullpen by the middle innings. That also depends on Chicago having an offense at all. The Cubs managed just 3 hits in the opener, and Michael King took a no-hitter into the 7th.

The opener got ugly fast. Fernando Tatis Jr. hit the Cubs' very first pitch out, the first leadoff homer in Padres playoff history. Manny Machado followed with his own first-inning homer and later added an RBI double. Xander Bogaerts also went deep off Matthew Boyd. That's 3 homers off a lefty Chicago trusted enough to start Game 1. Now a right-hander with a bad shoulder and a rough September has to keep the same lineup in the yard.

Chicago's injury list explains why this rotation looks the way it does. Justin Steele (elbow) isn't on the wild-card roster, Cade Horton has been on the 60-day IL since May, and Edward Cabrera was placed on the family medical emergency list last week. The bullpen is thinned out too: Porter Hodge, Ben Brown, Phil Maton, Riley Martin, Hunter Harvey and Shelby Miller are all shelved. That means whoever Counsell calls on in the 6th and 7th isn't who he planned on in April. San Diego has holes too, with Miguel Andujar (wrist), Ramon Laureano and Luis Rengifo out. But its lineup had no trouble scoring 8 without them.

The Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 and have won 3 straight, while the Cubs are 2-3 and were shut out in the last one. First pitch is 7:00 PM PT under cloudy skies, 68 degrees with barely any wind. That's standard Petco, which doesn't give hitters much help. If Gausman's shoulder holds up and his splitter is sharp, Chicago has a real shot at a Game 3. If it doesn't, the Padres can finish this early.

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