Taillon (2-4, 5.20) is the guy tasked with breaking it. His last time out he got chased after 4.2 innings against Houston, charged with 4 earned on 8 hits. Not exactly the stopper profile you draw up, but at this point the Cubs will take 5 functional innings and a lead handed to a bullpen that has been carrying water for the rotation all month.
Across the diamond is Bubba Chandler, whose 1-6 record does not tell his story. His last start in Toronto was 5 innings, 0 earned runs, 2 hits, and a career-high 11 strikeouts on 99 pitches — Pittsburgh's defense gifted Toronto the loss but the stuff was nasty. A Cubs lineup that has been ice cold and just got no-doubted 12-1 is exactly the wrong matchup to draw.
The market is essentially a coin flip on the moneyline, which tells you bookmakers are not fully buying Pittsburgh as a real favorite even with a rookie spinning gems and the visitor in a tailspin. The EV is negative on every side. If you must have action, the under at +104 with Chandler's swing-and-miss stuff against a frozen lineup is the one that at least passes the smell test.
Chicago is also doing this short-handed. Matthew Boyd, Justin Steele, Cade Horton, and Matt Shaw are all on the shelf, and the bullpen has lost Hunter Harvey and Porter Hodge to the 60-day. Pittsburgh is mostly intact outside of Ryan O'Hearn and Joey Bart. When one team's pitching depth is held together with tape and the other has a 22-year-old missing bats at a career-best rate, that is how a 29-26 club ends up favored over another 29-26 club.
- Day-To-DayBrandon Birdsell (RP) — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJeff Brigham (RP) — Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJaxon Wiggins (SP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Wiggins was placed on Triple-A Iowa's 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right elbow inflammation, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILMatt Shaw (RF) — Shaw went 3-for-4 with a double, a solo home run and an additional run scored in Wednesday's 5-4 win over the Padres.05/22
- 15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd (SP) — Boyd (knee) will make a rehab start with Triple-A Iowa on Sunday, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.05/26
- 15-Day-ILEdward Cabrera (SP) — Cabrera was removed from Wednesday's game against the Brewers with a blister on his right middle finger, Jared Wyllys of AllCHGO.com reports.05/24
- 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP) — Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP) — The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/17
- 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP) — Manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Steele's (elbow) setback will keep him sidelined until after the All-Star break, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP) — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP) — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP) — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B) — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo (SP) — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda (RP) — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger (RP) — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan (SP) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILRyan O'Hearn (RF) — O'Hearn (quadriceps) worked out in the outfield ahead of Monday's game against the Cubs, MLB.com reports.05/26
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart (C) — Manager Don Kelly said Bart, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rockies, is "banged up," Chris Halicke of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — Devenski (illness) was cleared to resume all baseball activities last week and began throwing bullpen sessions May 13, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/21
- 60-Day-ILJared Jones (SP) — General manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Jones (elbow) will return to Pittsburgh and throw a bullpen session Tuesday before the Pirates determine whether he'll return from the 60-day injured list during the upcoming week, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/24
The Cubs are not a 10-game-losing-streak team on paper. They have the talent and the record to suggest this stops soon. But somebody has to actually do it on the field, and asking Taillon to outduel a kid who just punched out 11 in 5 innings is a tough first step.