TLDR: A nor'easter pushed Game 162 out of Fenway, so the Red Sox are the home team at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg this afternoon. Boston has its playoff date with the Yankees locked in, and the Cubs have 9 innings to get their bats going before the regular season ends.
The Cubs and Red Sox play the final regular-season game at Tropicana Field after a nor'easter pushed it out of Fenway. Boston has already won the first 2 of the set and locked up the AL's No. 5 seed and a Tuesday Wild Card date with the Yankees. The Cubs' offense has gone quiet and their pitching staff is thinned by injuries. Neither team has named a starter, and how hard Boston plays with nothing left to settle will likely decide this one.
+Won both doubleheader games against Chicago Friday
+Anthony and Abreu delivered the key hits Friday
+Bello and Paez held Cubs scoreless in Game 2
−Seed locked, little reason to push starters
−Gasper and Contreras hurt ahead of Tuesday
−Home game played in a Florida dome
Neither club has named a starter for the 3:05 PM ET first pitch, and for both of them that says more about the week than about this game. Boston's playoff rotation is already being planned around Tuesday in the Bronx, with Sonny Gray and rookie Payton Tolle lined up for the first 2 games of the Wild Card Series. The Cubs are short on arms. Edward Cabrera was placed on the family medical emergency list, Kevin Gausman says his shoulder is still sore and he doesn't know when he'll pitch again, and Justin Steele won't be activated from the 60-day IL this weekend. Expect whoever starts for Chicago to be followed by a long line of relievers.
Boston has already won the first 2 of this set, 4-3 and 2-0 in Friday's doubleheader at Fenway. Roman Anthony had a huge opener: 3-for-3 with 2 doubles, a triple and a walk. In the nightcap, Wilyer Abreu's AL-leading 38th double broke a scoreless game in the 8th. The sweep cost them, though. Mickey Gasper hurt his biceps in Game 1 and will likely miss the Wild Card Series, and Willson Contreras still hasn't been able to swing with his sore hand. Boston's lineup for Tuesday is shorter than it was a week ago, and it has almost no reason to push anyone on Sunday. The board still has the Cubs favored in a Red Sox home game played in Florida.
Chicago's problem is simple: it isn't scoring. The Cubs have 3 runs in 2 games against Boston and have lost 4 of their last 5 overall, including 2 of 3 at home to Miami earlier in the week. The pitching mostly held up in those losses, and that's what makes it frustrating. Brayan Bello threw 4 shutout innings and Jedixson Paez added 5 scoreless in relief for his first career win, so a Cubs lineup that took an 88-73 record into September's last week got completely shut down by a starter and a rookie reliever.
The venue is a real factor here. Tropicana Field is indoors, so the 84-degree sunshine outside doesn't matter. Boston loses Fenway and its crowd, and the Cubs get a neutral field instead of a road one. A team getting ready for Yankee Stadium on Tuesday will probably play this one loose. Tracy's lineup card will tell you more about Boston's approach than anything else before first pitch, and resting regulars would make sense with Gasper and Contreras already hurt.
Both injury lists are long, but Chicago's hurts more right now. Porter Hodge, Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Riley Martin, Ben Brown and Shelby Miller are all on the 60-day IL, which leaves Craig Counsell with a thin bullpen in a game where the starter probably won't go deep. Boston's losses are in the lineup: Gasper, Contreras, Curtis Mead and Eli White. Garrett Crochet's lat has also ended his regular season. That matters more for next week than for today, but it could shape who plays this afternoon.
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Cubs and Red Sox Close the Regular Season in a Florida Dome | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush
