The Cubs are clinging to a Wild Card spot with the hottest hitter in the sport carrying them; the Reds are just trying to remember what a clutch hit looks like.
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CHCCIN
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Back the Cubs here. This is a Wild Card club carrying a hitter in the middle of a career-best stretch against a team that's lost the plot offensively with runners on base. Cincinnati's floor right now is too low to lean on at home, even with a crowd behind them.
Cubs
+PCA riding historic 23-game on-base streak
+50-40 record holds a playoff spot
+Rallied to avoid a series sweep vs. Cardinals
−Rotation gutted: Cabrera, Taillon, Steele all out
−Bullpen down five relievers to injury
−Got outscored 20-4 combined in two Cardinals losses
Reds
+Elly De La Cruz set a franchise steals milestone
+Hunter Greene back after elbow procedure
+Won series finale over the Orioles
−41-48, 7 games back of the last WC spot
−Hitting .232 over last 10, worst RISP average in MLB
−Bullpen thin with Santillan out long-term, Pagan struggling
Neither club has locked in a starter for Friday's series opener at Great American Ball Park, which tracks with how the last few weeks have gone for both rotations. The Cubs have been piecing things together with Edward Cabrera, Jameson Taillon and Justin Steele all sidelined, leaning on whoever's healthy to soak up innings. The Reds, for their part, are still figuring out what they have in a rotation that just welcomed Hunter Greene back from a right elbow procedure — and his first outing back wasn't pretty.
Cincinnati's bigger problem isn't the rotation, though — it's a lineup hitting .232 over its last 10 games with the majors-worst average with runners in scoring position. Elly De La Cruz gave the crowd something to cheer with a franchise stolen-base milestone last week, but his bat has cooled since he came back from his own absence, and outfielders Blake Dunn and Dane Myers are both still out. Add a bullpen already missing Tony Santillan for the long haul, and it's easy to see why Cincinnati sits 7 games back of the last National League Wild Card spot.
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CHC Cubs
CIN Reds
Chicago's issues are almost entirely arms. Craig Counsell has lost Cabrera, Taillon, Steele and a string of relievers — Ethan Roberts, Daniel Palencia, Hoby Milner, Phil Maton, Ben Brown — to injury since late spring, forcing the Cubs to win with volume instead of shutdown stuff. It's worked well enough to keep them in a playoff spot, but it's a formula that gets tested against any team that can hang around.
What's kept Chicago afloat is Pete Crow-Armstrong, who's in the middle of maybe the best stretch by a Cub not named Ruth or Gehrig — a 23-game on-base streak that's included a .412 average and 10 home runs. He was reportedly hitting .500 over his last several games entering this weekend, single-handedly making up for whatever the beat-up rotation gives back.
Chicago Cubs
Jul 9?@ Orioles—
Jul 8?@ Orioles—
Jul 7?@ Orioles—
Cincinnati Reds
Jul 9?vs Phillies—
Jul 8?vs Phillies—
Jul 7?vs Phillies—
Recent form.
Cincinnati doesn't have anything close to that right now. The Reds did salvage the finale of their series with Baltimore, but a pair of losses to open that set — including a shutout — are more indicative of where this team actually is: treading water, hoping health turns things around before the trade deadline forces a decision on which direction to go.
Chicago Cubs
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Cincinnati Reds
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Both front offices are watching the calendar as much as the standings. Chicago needs its rotation back intact to make a real second-half push; Cincinnati needs almost everything to break right just to stay in the Wild Card conversation. Friday's opener at Great American Ball Park, first pitch 7:10 PM ET, is a small step in either direction.
