Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

By Bush StaffUpdated 42d ago·2 min read
Chicago CubsCHC(52-41)
Cincinnati RedsCIN(42-50)
04
FINAL
123456789RHE
CHC
000000000040
CIN
000010304130

Shota Imanaga (5-7, 4.17 ERA) and Hunter Greene (0-1, 6.97 ERA) made for an odd pairing on paper — a steady lefty against a fireballer who'd just gotten shelled by Baltimore. First pitch was 7:10 PM ET, and the Cubs figured a Greene coming off 8 earned runs in 3.1 innings was exactly the matchup their bats needed.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Cubs(52-41)
LWWWL
0
Reds(42-50)
LWLWL
4
Best BetCubs -114
Postgame

Greene's 12-strikeout gem flipped the bear case into reality and the moneyline pick missed as Cincinnati shut out Chicago 4-0.

Pregame

We backed the Cubs at -109 on the strength of the deeper lineup and a rotation that, health issues aside, still profiles better than Cincinnati's on most nights. Greene entered with an ERA near 7.00, and betting against him made sense on paper even with swing-and-miss stuff in his profile. Sometimes the swing-and-miss shows up on the wrong night.

Instead Greene looked like the guy who made an All-Star case a year ago. Chicago's rotation has been held together with tape all season — Justin Steele and Cade Horton on the 60-day IL, Jameson Taillon and Edward Cabrera still rehabbing hamstrings — which put even more weight on Imanaga to keep the Cubs' NL Central lead intact. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is already without Matt McLain, Blake Dunn and Dane Myers, so any offense Elly De La Cruz could provide mattered plenty for a Reds team fighting to stay out of last place.

Chicago Cubs
Shota Imanaga
(6-8)·3.91 ERA
Jul 4 vs Cardinals
L
4.2IP
2ER
8K
3BB
86P
07/10 Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Hunter Greene
(2-1)·6.06 ERA
Jul 4 vs Orioles
L
3.1IP
8ER
7K
4BB
89P
07/10 Lineup

None of that made the Reds obvious favorites on the number — Chicago was still the market's pick, priced as the play both on the moneyline and to cover. That gap between what the sportsbooks expected and what actually happened is exactly why this one stings a little more for Cubs backers.

Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(52-41)
Jul 9L@ Orioles2-3
Jul 8W@ Orioles9-7
Jul 7W@ Orioles5-2
Jul 5Wvs Cardinals6-4
Jul 5Lvs Cardinals0-3
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(42-50)
Jul 9Lvs Phillies0-1
Jul 8Wvs Phillies11-5
Jul 7Lvs Phillies1-4
Jul 5Wvs Orioles3-2
Jul 4Lvs Orioles5-8

Chicago had won 3 of its last 5 heading in, including a wild 9-7 shootout in Baltimore, so the offense wasn't cold by any means. But this Cubs lineup has had stretches all year where it goes ice cold against the right arm, and Greene's fastball-slider combo was enough to make Friday one of those nights. He struck out 12 over 7 innings and allowed just 3 hits — as complete a bounce-back as you'll see from a guy who'd been torched five days earlier.

Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(15)
  • 10-Day-ILMatt Shaw (RF)Shaw (hand) won't be activated from the injured list until after the All-Star break, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.07/04
  • 15-Day-ILPhil Maton (RP)Maton (knee) will report to Triple-A Iowa on Wednesday to begin a rehab assignment.07/08
  • 15-Day-ILJameson Taillon (SP)Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Taillon (hamstring) is expected to make another rehab start before returning from the 15-day injured list, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.07/07
  • 15-Day-ILEdward Cabrera (SP)Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Cabrera (hamstring) resumed a throwing program this weekend, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.07/06
  • 15-Day-ILEthan Roberts (RP)The Cubs placed Roberts on the 15-day injured list Monday due to right forearm inflammation.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILDaniel Palencia (RP)Palencia (elbow) is progressing in his rehab from elbow tendinitis, but he won't be activated from the injured list until after the All-Star break, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.06/28
  • 15-Day-ILHoby Milner (RP)Milner (abdomen) will be sidelined 4-to-6 weeks after undergoing emergency appendectomy surgery on Friday, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.06/27
  • 15-Day-ILBen Brown (RP)Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Thursday that Brown has been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his neck and will have limited activity for the next month, 104.3 The Score reports.06/25
  • 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP)The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP)Steele (elbow) was cleared to begin ramping up his throwing program Tuesday, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.07/08
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP)The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/17
  • 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP)The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP)The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP)The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B)The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(6)
  • 10-Day-ILMatt McLain (2B)The Reds placed McLain on the 10-day injured list with a strained calf, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.07/10
  • 10-Day-ILBlake Dunn (CF)Dunn (elbow) hoped to resume baseball activity Saturday but was not ready, MLB.com reports.07/05
  • 10-Day-ILDane Myers (CF)Myers received an injection in the AC joint of his left shoulder Saturday, MLB.com reports.07/05
  • 15-Day-ILTony Santillan (RP)Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/26
  • 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft (RP)Ashcraft is expected to resume throwing soon after receiving good news Tuesday regarding the imaging on his injured right elbow UCL, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/30
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP)Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his rehab program has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/28

Imanaga wasn't disastrous, but he wasn't sharp either — traffic on the bases all night that eventually caught up to him. Elly De La Cruz, still working his way back into form after a hamstring stint, provided the first crack with a solo shot to left-center in the 5th. JJ Bleday delivered the exclamation point in the 7th with a 2-run homer to center that turned a tight game into a laugher.

It's the kind of loss that stings more for what it says than what it costs — Chicago's still 52-41 and running the division, but a lineup that leans on scoring in bunches went cold at the worst time, and a rotation already missing four arms just watched its ace-caliber lefty get outdueled by a pitcher who entered with a 6.97 ERA. Cincinnati will take the split-the-difference feeling and move on still 8 games under .500, but Greene reminding everyone what he's capable of is a real building block heading toward the break.

MLBChicago CubsCincinnati RedsPolymarketKalshiShota ImanagaHunter Greene