Chicago has been the best version of itself for three weeks. Imanaga and Ian Happ already locked Arizona down 2-0 on Saturday, the home win streak is at 10, and Counsell's group is trying to push it to 11 with a sweep. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, are scuffling around .500 and turning to a pitcher who hasn't found anything resembling 2024 Merrill Kelly.
The mound matchup is the whole story. Kelly is sitting on a 9.20 ERA, has given up 13 earned over his last two starts and walked eight in that span — and now he gets a hot Cubs lineup at Wrigley with the wind doing whatever it wants in May. Matthew Boyd's 7.00 ERA looks ugly until you notice the 33% strikeout rate; the stuff is real even if the runs haven't matched yet.
Arizona's bigger problem is the personnel sheet. Corbin Burnes is still on the 60-day, the bullpen is missing Puk and Justin Martinez, Pavin Smith is post-surgery, and Carlos Santana is only just starting a rehab assignment in Reno. That is a lot to ask of a rotation already leaning on Kelly to be something he hasn't been.
- Day-To-DayKetel Marte 2B — Marte is not in the lineup for Friday's game against the Cubs.
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt RP — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Santana 1B — Santana (thigh) could rejoin the Diamondbacks on Friday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes SP — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.
- 60-Day-ILCristian Mena RP — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
- 60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar LF — Lawlar is doing as much baseball activity as possible without using his fractured right wrist, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 60-Day-ILBlake Walston SP — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
- 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank RP — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
- Day-To-DayBrandon Birdsell RP — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.
- Day-To-DayJeff Brigham RP — Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports.
- Day-To-DayJaxon Wiggins SP — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Wiggins was placed on Triple-A Iowa's 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right elbow inflammation, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.
- 15-Day-ILHunter Harvey RP — Harvey was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right triceps Friday, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports.
- 15-Day-ILJordan Wicks RP — Wicks (elbow) struck out two batters and allowed one hit and one walk over three scoreless innings Saturday in a rehab start for Triple-A Iowa.
- 15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd SP — Boyd underwent a successful menisectomy Thursday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
- 15-Day-ILRiley Martin RP — Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar RP — The Cubs placed Thielbar on the 15-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain.
The Cubs aren't perfectly healthy either — Justin Steele is out until after the All-Star break and Cade Horton just had Tommy John — but the bullpen has held up and the lineup keeps producing. Going 22-12 while burying two starters is the kind of thing that gets you taken seriously in the division.
The market sees it the same way the eye test does. Chicago is a sizable home favorite, the public and the money are both on the Cubs side, and the total has crept up to 12 — a number that says oddsmakers also don't trust Kelly to keep this one quiet. If you're hunting an angle, the EV on every side is mildly negative, which usually means the line is doing its job.
Sweep or split, this is a measuring-stick weekend for the Diamondbacks and they're losing it. First pitch 1:20 local, Boyd vs. Kelly, Wrigley loud.