First pitch at 5:40 PM CT in Miami, with Ryne Nelson (2-4, 4.60) trying to clean up a Diamondbacks staff that just got shelled for 10 runs in the series opener. The Marlins counter with Ryan Gusto, who has thrown exactly 1 big-league start this year and got bounced after 2 innings of opener duty against the Rays.
Gusto's path here is the weird part. He was recalled, used as a long man, then thrown into the rotation on 2 days' rest as a glorified opener, and now gets a real turn. The Triple-A numbers (1.20 ERA, 21:3 K:BB across his last 15 innings at Jacksonville) say there's something there, but a 10.80 ERA in the bigs and a short hook the last time out is what the Diamondbacks lineup is walking in expecting to exploit.
The form gap is real. Miami has won 4 of 5 and just dropped a 10-spot on Arizona behind a Joe Mack 4-for-4 night and a 4-run 8th inning. Arizona is 2-3 in their last 5 and got run out of the building 14-1 by the Nationals 4 days ago. They're functional, not dangerous, and the bottom of the rotation behind them is held together with tape.
- Day-To-DayA.J. Vukovich CF — no
- Day-To-DayDerek Law RP — no
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt RP — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 10-Day-ILLourdes Gurriel Jr. LF — Gurriel (hamstring) began a rehab assignment in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League Monday, going 1-for-4 with an RBI single.
- 10-Day-ILJames McCann C — McCann (quad) has started taking machine batting practice and doing catching drills, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 60-Day-ILCarlos Santana 1B — Santana (thigh) began a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League on Friday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar LF — Lawlar (wrist) moved his rehab to Triple-A Reno on Thursday and played consecutive games for the Aces. He went a combined 3-for-7 with two doubles, a triple and an RBI.
- 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes SP — Manager Torey Lovullo said Wednesday that Burnes (elbow) has been shut down from throwing after suffering a teres major strain, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
- Day-To-DayThomas White SP — White was diagnosed with a left shoulder capsular sprain Friday and is expected to miss the rest of the season, Isaac Azout of FishOnFirst.com reports.
- Day-To-DayKemp Alderman RF — Triple-A Jacksonville placed Alderman on the 7-day injured list Tuesday due to a left wrist injury, Michael Germanese of Roundtable.io reports.
- 15-Day-ILJosh Ekness RP — Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said Monday that Ekness is expected to miss approximately six weeks due to a right calf strain, Kyle Sielaff of Marlins.tv reports.
- 15-Day-ILJanson Junk SP — The Marlins placed Junk on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to right shin bone inflammation, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILEury Perez SP — The Marlins placed Perez on the 15-day injured list Friday, retroactive to Thursday, due to a right gracilis strain.
- 60-Day-ILGriffin Conine LF — Conine (hamstring) appears to be a week or two away from beginning a rehab assignment, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.
- 60-Day-ILAndrew Nardi RP — The Marlins transferred Nardi (ribcage) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
- 60-Day-ILRobby Snelling SP — Snelling underwent internal brace surgery Friday to repair a torn UCL in his left elbow.
That injury list is the subplot. Arizona is without Corbin Burnes (shut down with a teres major strain), Carlos Santana, Jordan Lawlar, A.J. Puk and James McCann, with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. still on a rehab assignment. Miami's rotation is even more decimated — Eury Perez, Janson Junk, Robby Snelling, Adam Mazur and Thomas White are all down, which is exactly why a guy with a 10.80 ERA is starting a major-league game tonight.
The market read tracks the vibes. Marlins -1.5 has been hammered from +193 down to -172, which is a massive move on a run line and tells you somebody likes Miami to win this comfortably. The flip side: tracked sharp money on the side is actually on Arizona at $469, so there's a split between price action and consensus tickets. Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll showing up in the opener at least gives the D-backs a puncher's chance against an opener masquerading as a starter.