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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

By JR·2 min read
Arizona DiamondbacksARI(85-74)
San Diego PadresSD(89-70)
AT
6:40 PM PT

TLDR: Arizona has won 5 straight and is still barely alive in the wild-card race. They open a weekend set at Petco against a San Diego team that finished its business in Los Angeles and now gets to decide how hard it wants to play this one.

SAT SEP 26, 6:40 PM
Spread
WIN
Total
Diamondbacks
(85-74)
WWWWW
Padres
(89-70)
WWLWW

Arizona brings a 5-game win streak to San Diego with its wild-card hopes on the line, while the Padres show up already in the postseason and still pushing for the top wild-card spot. Brandon Pfaadt starts for Arizona against a San Diego starter who hasn't been named, so the game likely turns on how seriously the Padres treat the night after their clinch.

Diamondbacks
  • Won 5 straight, 18 hits in the 12-8 win
  • Facing an unnamed starter after the Padres' clinch
  • Every game is must-win, elimination number 2
  • Pfaadt lasted only 4.1 innings in his last start
  • Bullpen missing Puk, Mena, Thompson, Saalfrank
  • Recent scoring came mostly at Coors
Padres
  • Took 2 of the first 3 at Dodger Stadium
  • Machado homered, drove in 3 in 5-1 win
  • Andujar and Sheets back in live at-bats
  • No starter named for this game
  • Musgrove and Giolito out, rotation thin
  • Coming home the day after a late clinch in LA

Brandon Pfaadt (7-3, 3.72) gets the ball for Arizona at 6:40 PM PT, and San Diego still hasn't named anyone to face him. Pfaadt's last turn was short: 4.1 innings on 64 pitches against the Yankees, with 1 earned run allowed. That meant the Arizona bullpen covered most of that game, and it has been covering a lot lately. In the 5-3 win at Coors, Merrill Kelly went 5.1 innings and Justin Martinez, Brandyn Garcia and Juan Morillo got it to Jonathan Loaisiga, who stranded runners on second and third to end it.

Brandon Pfaadt
Brandon Pfaadt
(7-3)·3.72 ERA
Sep 19 vs Yankees
ND
4.1IP
1ER
3K
1BB
64P
09/25 Lineup
San Diego Padres
TBD
—
TBD
ND
—IP
—ER
—K
—BB
—P
09/25 Lineup

The Padres come home from Dodger Stadium with the thing they went there for. Machado homered and drove in 3 in the 5-1 win that gave San Diego sole possession of the top NL wild-card spot, and the 4-2 win in the finale was the one billed as clinching a third straight postseason trip. San Diego's rotation is already short with Joe Musgrove and Lucas Giolito on the 60-day IL, and the TBD on the pitcher card is the biggest unknown in this game. Help could arrive in the lineup: Miguel Andujar and Gavin Sheets both took live at-bats on Monday. San Diego is still the home favorite despite not having a named starter.

Arizona doesn't have San Diego's cushion. The D-backs started Thursday 3 games back of the final wild card with 4 to play and an elimination number of 2. Then they put up a season-high 18 hits in a 12-8 win at Coors, with Gabriel Moreno and Nolan Arenado both homering in a 6-run first inning. Their last 5 have all been wins, and they still need other teams to lose.

Arizona Diamondbacks
(85-74)
09/24W@Rockies12-8
09/23W@Rockies5-3
09/22W@Rockies7-2
09/20WvsYankees8-4
09/19WvsYankees5-3
San Diego Padres
(89-70)
09/24W@Dodgers4-2
09/23W@Dodgers5-1
09/22L@Dodgers0-7
09/20WvsMarlins7-3
09/19WvsMarlins7-6

The Padres aren't just coasting, though. Clinching a spot is one thing, but holding the top wild card means hosting a series, so there's still a reason to push this weekend. They've won 2 straight and gone 4-1 in their last 5, including 2 of the first 3 against the Dodgers. The question is whether the lineup that shows up after a late night in LA and a clinch looks like the lineup that won there.

Arizona Diamondbacks
(5)
  • 60-Day-ILTyler Locklear (1B) — The Diamondbacks optioned Locklear to Triple-A Reno on Monday.09/12
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Thompson (RP) — The Diamondbacks transferred Thompson (back) to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.09/01
  • 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk (RP) — Puk (elbow/shoulder) will remain shut down for the remainder of the season.08/07
  • 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank (RP) — Saalfrank (shoulder) has begun a throwing program.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILCristian Mena (RP) — Mena underwent surgery on his right shoulder and will be sidelined for the rest of the season.06/01
San Diego Padres
(8)
  • 10-Day-ILMiguel Andujar (DH) — Andujar (wrist) took live at-bats at Petco Park on Monday.09/24
  • 10-Day-ILGavin Sheets (1B) — Sheets (foot) took part in live batting practice Monday.09/24
  • 15-Day-ILJeremiah Estrada (RP) — Estrada (shoulder) hadn't resumed throwing as of Sept. 8, and he may not be able to return from the injured list before the end of the campaign.09/12
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove (SP) — Musgrove (elbow) has been regularly playing catch, but the timeline for a potential return to action remains unclear.09/24
  • 60-Day-ILRamon Laureano (LF) — Laureano (hip) has progressed to swinging off a tee and playing catch, but he isn't close to playing in games.09/12
  • 60-Day-ILLuis Rengifo (LF) — The Padres placed Rengifo (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.09/01
  • 60-Day-ILLucas Giolito (SP) — Giolito (elbow) has been throwing at the Padres' team complex in Arizona, but his timeline to return is unclear.08/24
  • 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing (RP) — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08

Arizona's injury list is mostly relievers: A.J. Puk, Cristian Mena, Ryan Thompson and Andrew Saalfrank are all on the 60-day IL, which is why the late innings keep landing on Martinez and Loaisiga. The forecast is 72 and cloudy with a 6 mph breeze, a neutral night at a park that doesn't give much away. Arizona needs its bats to keep hitting away from altitude, and San Diego needs to decide whether it cares about this one.

Live Odds

Diamondbacks at Padres — Diamondbacks Bring Their Season To Petco, Padres Bring Their Clinch | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush