The Diamondbacks (19-20) and Rangers (19-21) are basically the same team on paper right now: hovering around .500, banged up, and just starting to find some offense. Arizona dropped 3 in a row before taking the last 2, Texas split its last 5, and Pinnacle has this priced almost dead even with the Rangers at -125 on the moneyline.
Soroka has been the better story of the two starters. He's 4-2 with a 4.14 ERA, became just the second Arizona pitcher to win his first 4 starts in a D-backs uniform, and went 7 innings against Toronto for the first time he's done that since August 2019. The wobble is real though — he got hammered for 8 runs on 10 hits in 3 innings against Milwaukee before steadying himself against Pittsburgh, so the floor is still there.
Eovaldi's arc is the opposite. He coughed up 23 runs and 9 homers across his first 6 starts, then flipped a switch against the Yankees twice — 7 scoreless on April 29 and 8 innings of 1-run ball last Wednesday at Yankee Stadium with 8 strikeouts. He's 4-4 with a 4.15 ERA now, and the Rangers ride him as the rotation anchor with Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bradford still working their way back.
The injury lists do a lot of the talking here. Arizona is without Corbin Burnes, A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez, Pavin Smith, and Jordan Lawlar, with Carlos Santana still on a rehab assignment. Texas is missing Wyatt Langford, Josh Smith, Cody Freeman, and Chris Martin out of the pen. Neither lineup is at full strength, which is part of why both offenses had stretches that looked unwatchable before this week.
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt RP — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Santana 1B — Santana (thigh) will continue his rehab assignment through the weekend, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar LF — Lawlar will undergo imaging this week to determine how his broken right wrist is healing, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 60-Day-ILJustin Martinez RP — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
- 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes SP — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.
- 60-Day-ILCristian Mena RP — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
- 60-Day-ILBlake Walston SP — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
- 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank RP — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
- Day-To-DaySebastian Walcott SS — Rangers GM Ross Fenstermaker said Tuesday that Walcott could be ready for game action in August, "if all things according to plan" in his rehab from the internal brace procedure he underwent on his right elbow, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
- 10-Day-ILCody Freeman 3B — Freeman (back) has resumed baseball activities, Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News reports.
- 10-Day-ILWyatt Langford LF — Langford (forearm) rejoined the Rangers in Detroit on Saturday and will rest for a full week before being reevaluated by the team, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
- 10-Day-ILJosh Smith 2B — The Rangers placed Smith on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a right glute strain.
- 15-Day-ILCarter Baumler RP — Baumler (intercostal) has been shut down from his rehab assignment, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILChris Martin RP — Martin (biceps) will throw live batting practice Saturday, Jeff Wilson of AllDLLS.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILRobert Garcia RP — Garcia (shoulder) began throwing from 80 feet out Friday, Jeff Wilson of AllDLLS.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILLuis Curvelo RP — The Rangers placed Curvelo on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a right shoulder impingement, Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reports.
The hook for the home side: Josh Jung has stacked back-to-back 3-hit games after crawling out of an 0-for-12 hole, and Texas just rattled off back-to-back shutouts of the Cubs (6-0 and 3-0) to head into this series with actual momentum. Corey Seager is the worry — .193, an 0-for-14 stretch, and Skip Schumaker has already hinted a day off is coming. If Seager wakes up, that 7.5 total stops looking so safe.
Best guess: Eovaldi keeps the train rolling, Soroka gives Arizona a chance, and the under is the side that has to sweat the late innings. With both bullpens patched together, a single big swing tips this one — and the Rangers being a 1-run home favorite at -125 feels about right.