Drew Rasmussen (6-4, 2.62 ERA) gets the ball for the Rays at 1:40 PM ET, and June has been his best stretch of the season — a 1.00 ERA across his last 4 starts covering 27 innings, with 34 strikeouts against just 3 walks. His June 22 outing against Kansas City was 6 innings of 2-run ball on 4 hits, a game he lost because the offense didn't show up. Merrill Kelly (5-7, 5.71 ERA) draws the other half of the matchup, coming off a 6-inning, 7-hit, 3-walk outing against St. Louis where he needed 96 pitches to get through it. His ERA is on pace for the worst mark of his 8-year MLB career.
The series context makes the pitching gap even harder to ignore. Tampa Bay is 47-33 and moved back to the top of the AL East after winning Friday 6-1 and Saturday 4-2 — Junior Caminero went deep for the 3rd straight game Saturday, and Jonathan Aranda added a 2-run shot. Earlier in the week, Caminero hit 3 home runs in a single game against Kansas City in a 13-2 blowout. The Rays have won 4 straight. Arizona at 41-41 has dropped 5 of 7 and mustered a combined 3 runs in 2 games at Tropicana Field.
What makes Arizona's situation harder to look at is the depth behind Kelly. Corbin Burnes — the $210 million investment who was supposed to anchor this rotation — is shut down after suffering a teres major strain on top of his Tommy John recovery, with September now the optimistic return target. Ryne Nelson just moved to the 60-day IL with an elbow issue. A.J. Puk is out another 4 weeks with a capsule strain. Andrew Saalfrank faces 10-16 months on the shelf. Cristian Mena had shoulder surgery and is done for 2026. Kelly is the ace by default, and this version of him is not built for that role.
- Day-To-DayA.J. Vukovich CF — no
- Day-To-DayDerek Law RP — no
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt RP — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 10-Day-ILJames McCann C — McCann (quadriceps) will start playing games in the Arizona Complex League next week, MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJordan Lawlar LF — The Diamondbacks placed Lawlar on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a right hamstring strain.
- 15-Day-ILMichael Soroka SP — Soroka (glute) is expected to begin throwing bullpen sessions twice weekly starting Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
- developmental listJuan Centeno C — The Diamondbacks re-assigned Centeno to minor-league camp Friday.
- 60-Day-ILRyne Nelson SP — The Diamondbacks transferred Nelson (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.
- Day-To-DayTre' Morgan 1B — no
- Day-To-DayLogan Davidson 1B — Davidson signed a minor-league contract with Tampa Bay on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 Houston reports.
- Day-To-DayAustin Vernon RP — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
- Day-To-DayAlfredo Zarraga RP — no
- 10-Day-ILJake Fraley RF — Fraley (hernia) began a rehab assignment with the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Saturday, going 0-for-3 as the designated hitter.
- developmental listLuis Guerrero RP — The Rays acquired Guerrero from the Red Sox on Tuesday in exchange for Tristan Gray.
- 15-Day-ILSteven Matz SP — The Rays placed Matz on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a left ankle sprain.
- 15-Day-ILJesse Scholtens RP — Scholtens was charged with a blown save and dropped to 5-3 on the season in Monday's 9-7 loss to the Orioles in 13 innings after yielding five runs (three earned) on four hits across 1.1 frames. He struck out one batter.
Arizona needs an early lead and a different Kelly than the one who allowed 11 hits to the Angels in June or walked 3 Cardinals last Monday. Rasmussen can run into a bad outing — last week proved that — but the Rays don't need to score 10 to win this game, and their lineup has shown the ability to chase struggling starters all month. If Kelly falls behind in the first few innings, this Arizona offense has not shown the firepower to climb back. The Rays are playing like a legitimate AL contender. The Diamondbacks are playing like a team waiting for its pitching staff to get healthy.