Barstool Bush
Predictions

Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays

By Bush StaffUpdated 55d ago·2 min read
Arizona DiamondbacksARI(41-41)
Tampa Bay RaysTB(47-33)
1—5
FINAL
123456789RHE
ARI
000000010150
TB
12001100—5100

Drew Rasmussen (6-4, 2.62 ERA) gets the ball for the Rays at 1:40 PM ET, and June has been his best stretch of the season — a 1.00 ERA across his last 4 starts covering 27 innings, with 34 strikeouts against just 3 walks. His June 22 outing against Kansas City was 6 innings of 2-run ball on 4 hits, a game he lost because the offense didn't show up. Merrill Kelly (5-7, 5.71 ERA) draws the other half of the matchup, coming off a 6-inning, 7-hit, 3-walk outing against St. Louis where he needed 96 pitches to get through it. His ERA is on pace for the worst mark of his 8-year MLB career.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Diamondbacks(41-41)
LLPWW
1
Rays(47-33)
WWWWL
5
Best BetRays -192
Pregame

Tampa Bay is priced at roughly -184 on the moneyline, putting their fair probability at about 63% — and the pitching matchup justifies every bit of it. Rasmussen is locked in right now, Kelly is posting career-worst numbers, and Arizona's offense has scored 3 runs total in the first 2 games of this series. Laying the price on the home team here is the straightforward read.

The series context makes the pitching gap even harder to ignore. Tampa Bay is 47-33 and moved back to the top of the AL East after winning Friday 6-1 and Saturday 4-2 — Junior Caminero went deep for the 3rd straight game Saturday, and Jonathan Aranda added a 2-run shot. Earlier in the week, Caminero hit 3 home runs in a single game against Kansas City in a 13-2 blowout. The Rays have won 4 straight. Arizona at 41-41 has dropped 5 of 7 and mustered a combined 3 runs in 2 games at Tropicana Field.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Merrill Kelly
(7-8)·5.38 ERA
Jun 22 @ Cardinals
L
6.0IP
3ER
2K
3BB
96P
06/28 Lineup
Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Rasmussen
(7-5)·3.26 ERA
Jun 22 vs Royals
L
6.0IP
2ER
5K
2BB
90P
06/28 Lineup
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
(41-41)
Jun 27L@ Rays2-4
Jun 26L@ Rays1-6
Jun 25P@ Cardinals0-0
Jun 24W@ Cardinals9-4
Jun 23W@ Cardinals4-3
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
(47-33)
Jun 27Wvs Diamondbacks4-2
Jun 26Wvs Diamondbacks6-1
Jun 25Wvs Royals13-2
Jun 24Wvs Royals5-3
Jun 23Lvs Royals5-12

What makes Arizona's situation harder to look at is the depth behind Kelly. Corbin Burnes — the $210 million investment who was supposed to anchor this rotation — is shut down after suffering a teres major strain on top of his Tommy John recovery, with September now the optimistic return target. Ryne Nelson just moved to the 60-day IL with an elbow issue. A.J. Puk is out another 4 weeks with a capsule strain. Andrew Saalfrank faces 10-16 months on the shelf. Cristian Mena had shoulder surgery and is done for 2026. Kelly is the ace by default, and this version of him is not built for that role.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
(14)
  • Day-To-DayA.J. Vukovich (CF) — no05/25
  • Day-To-DayDerek Law (RP) — no05/21
  • Day-To-DayKyle Amendt (RP) — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILJames McCann (C) — McCann (quadriceps) will start playing games in the Arizona Complex League next week, MLB.com reports.06/27
  • 10-Day-ILJordan Lawlar (LF) — The Diamondbacks placed Lawlar on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a right hamstring strain.06/20
  • 15-Day-ILMichael Soroka (SP) — Soroka (glute) is expected to begin throwing bullpen sessions twice weekly starting Tuesday, MLB.com reports.06/27
  • developmental listJuan Centeno (C) — The Diamondbacks re-assigned Centeno to minor-league camp Friday.06/16
  • 60-Day-ILRyne Nelson (SP) — The Diamondbacks transferred Nelson (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk (RP) — Arizona is shutting down Puk (elbow) for another four weeks due to a capsule strain and he will also undergo another MRI in four weeks, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.06/19
  • 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes (SP) — Manager Torey Lovullo said Wednesday that Burnes (elbow) has been shut down from throwing after suffering a teres major strain, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILCristian Mena (RP) — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters Monday that Mena underwent surgery on his right shoulder and will be sidelined for the rest of the season, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILBlake Walston (SP) — Walston (elbow) paused his rehab program earlier in the season, but he was expected to start building back up around the middle of May, MLB.com reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Martinez (RP) — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.05/09
  • 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank (RP) — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.05/08
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
(14)
  • Day-To-DayTre' Morgan (1B) — no06/25
  • Day-To-DayLogan Davidson (1B) — Davidson signed a minor-league contract with Tampa Bay on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 Houston reports.06/25
  • Day-To-DayAustin Vernon (RP) — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.05/08
  • Day-To-DayAlfredo Zarraga (RP) — no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILJake Fraley (RF) — Fraley (hernia) began a rehab assignment with the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Saturday, going 0-for-3 as the designated hitter.06/28
  • developmental listLuis Guerrero (RP) — The Rays acquired Guerrero from the Red Sox on Tuesday in exchange for Tristan Gray.06/25
  • 15-Day-ILSteven Matz (SP) — The Rays placed Matz on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a left ankle sprain.06/25
  • 15-Day-ILJesse Scholtens (RP) — Scholtens was charged with a blown save and dropped to 5-3 on the season in Monday's 9-7 loss to the Orioles in 13 innings after yielding five runs (three earned) on four hits across 1.1 frames. He struck out one batter.05/27
  • 60-Day-ILEdwin Uceta (RP) — Manager Kevin Cash said Friday that Uceta (shoulder) will resume his throwing program sometime around June 29, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.06/19
  • 60-Day-ILManuel Rodriguez (RP) — Manager Kevin Cash said Friday that Rodriguez (elbow) will begin throwing live batting practice June 30, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.06/19
  • 60-Day-ILGavin Lux (LF) — Lux (shoulder) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment June 29, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.06/19
  • 60-Day-ILJonathan Heasley (RP) — Heasley was returned to the major-league roster and placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right elbow stress reaction.06/08
  • 60-Day-ILSteven Wilson (RP) — The Rays hope Wilson (back) will be able to start bullpen sessions June 8, MLB.com reports.05/30
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Pepiot (SP) — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.05/08

Arizona needs an early lead and a different Kelly than the one who allowed 11 hits to the Angels in June or walked 3 Cardinals last Monday. Rasmussen can run into a bad outing — last week proved that — but the Rays don't need to score 10 to win this game, and their lineup has shown the ability to chase struggling starters all month. If Kelly falls behind in the first few innings, this Arizona offense has not shown the firepower to climb back. The Rays are playing like a legitimate AL contender. The Diamondbacks are playing like a team waiting for its pitching staff to get healthy.

Sources

MLBArizona DiamondbacksTampa Bay RaysPolymarketKalshiMerrill KellyDrew Rasmussen